Is the Draft Ready for Prime Time?

I love the NFL Draft.  It has been one of my favorite pseudo-sporting events for quite some time (right up there with the NBA Draft, my league’s Fantasy Football Draft, and the NHL).  Up until recently, I really enjoyed all of the information the NFL Draft allowed me to drink in.  I loved that there were hundreds of names for me to learn before the draft began.  I took pride in being able to share my educated opinion on the majority of the guys who would be taken in the seven rounds of action.  I liked that there were easy to understand numbers that aided me in forming my opinions, like 40 yard dash times to illustrate pure speed, vertical jumps to display explosiveness, and shuttle run times to determine quickness.  I liked being able to pick out sleepers from small schools or with poor measurables who were going to go two rounds later than they should and surprise all the pundits.  The simplicity of it all was what made it great.  However, that simplicity has gone out the window in recent years.  The draft has gone from being something that was tailored to the diehard fans to being packaged for the masses.  The same way nationally broadcasted sporting events infuriate me with their unsophisticated coverage, ESPN’s (the King of the Draft) coverage of the draft now panders to the lowest common denominator among their viewers while beating us over the head with their voluminous coverage.

While there are many problems with the way the draft is currently covered by the major media outlets, I believe that each issue stems from the amount of cooks in the kitchen.  For the sake of clarity, I’ll focus mainly on the coverage provided by ESPN, as they are the ones who actually televise the event.  Back in the good old days, Mel Kiper, Jr. was the be-all, end-all of draft information.  He had great sources, great incite, and great hair.  He was the total package.  For about three weeks a year, he was on TV more than David Letterman as he gave his opinions on who would be good, who would be a bust, and what player was going to be taken where.  It was the perfect amount of information.  Having Kiper, Jr. as the main voice in my ear allowed me to either agree or disagree with what was essentially the consensus opinion.  Every once in a while, Chris Mortensen would chime in from some team’s headquarters, but nothing he said really meant anything.  I have a strong belief that NFL front office executives were put on this earth to lie to us and send us in the wrong direction, so any information they gave Mort was likely a ruse.  Come draft day, the only opinion that meant anything was Mel’s.  Today, ESPN has two full time draft analyzers that do their work year round (Kiper, Jr. and the enigmatic Todd McShay), a blogger for each division in the NFL who opines on all thing NFL draft during the period from the Super Bowl until Draft Day, and an entire website (Scouts INC.) that contributes mock drafts, player projections, and copious articles.  Add that to the contributions of other ESPN football staff (John Clayton, the afore-mentioned Mortensen, Adam Schefter, ect…), and the amount of information regarding the draft that is available is simply overwhelming.  In most cases, the more information there is available on a certain topic, the better.  But when something like the NFL Draft is concerned, this couldn’t be further from the case.  There no longer exists any consensus opinion on anything.  Is Tim Tebow going to be great or a bust?  It depends on who you ask.  Is Sam Bradford the franchise quarterback that he’ll have to be in order to justify going 1^st overall on Thursday?  Sure!  Well…maybe.  Ask again later.  This has become the problem.  With so many different opinions stemming from information gained from an uncountable number of sources, the opinion regarding an individual player can changes daily.  A player can go from being slotted 10^th overall to being a borderline first round pick based solely on what some guy heard from some other guy.  That player’s ability didn’t change over the course of a few hours.  He didn’t become a worse football player.  He didn’t lose any of his desire to play the game.  Someone simply decided that his value should change.  The rub of all this is that none of this conjecture has anything to do with how the teams view the draft.  Back in the day, teams used a scouting service to give them rundowns of the prospects, but in the modern age of competitive sports, such a system really isn’t palatable any longer.  Each team has their own system and their own scouting personnel that determines how they draft and who they draft.  All this information ESPN is produces simply for the use by the fans, which means that the more often things change, the more they can write about it, and the more page views ESPN.com gets.  Which brings me to my next point:  Money is the reason for everything crappy in sports, including changes to the draft.

Tonight (Thursday), the NFL Draft begins with the first round being aired in primetime on ESPN.  On Friday, the second and third rounds will begin at 5pm CDT.  Saturday, the draft concludes with rounds 4-7.  Three days?  Really?  Three f#%&ing days?  The MLB’s Rule 4 (Amateur) Draft only takes three days, and it has 50 rounds!  Why should the seven round NFL draft take just as long?  Money, my friends…Money.  The NFL is a cash cow for networks.  It is easily the biggest sport in North America, and nobody understands sports exploitation better than ESPN.  If there’s a dollar to be made, The Worldwide Leader will make it.  This is the same network that once tricked Baltimore Orioles’ third baseman Miguel Tejada into coming in for an interview to answer some “baseball questions,” only to throw a birth certificate in his face that suggested Miguel was a couple of years older than he was representing.  You stay classy, ESPN.  The draft moving to primetime is just another way to make a buck.  People will watch tonight.  Lots of people.  People will watch tomorrow night.  Lots of people.  Advertisers will pay big bucks for spots during the early picks.  Chris Berman will reference bands and actors from the 60’s that no one under the age of 35 has ever heard of (I’m not sure if those obscure references get any money for being mentioned…I’ll look into it).  The drama will be thick as Jimmy Clausen slips further and further into the first round (Clausen pulled a fast one on ESPN by deciding not to show up to the draft in order to spend the night with his grandfather.  ESPN will make sure this costs him).  Everything is in place to make ESPN a load of money on this thing, which means that we had better get used to the format.  Money makes the world go round, baby.

So what can the average “Draft Rube” do to come to terms with all these changes to this wonderful event that has made it more accessible?  I’m a big proponent of Mock Draft Leagues.  This is a great way to prove to yourself how smart you are!  (Never mind the fact that you’ll get about 10 of the 32 first round picks correct.  It’s not about the results, it’s about the process.  Now go get another beer and finish up that second round mock!)  Second, pick your favorite draft expert and focus mainly on his information.  For me, it’s always been Mel Kiper, Jr.  He knows the system.  He knows the front office guys.  He scouts college players very well.  He’s my guy.  Some people really like Todd McShay.  He’s a little young for my taste.  How could someone who looks like he’s fresh out of college have the grizzled nature it takes to do this work?  I’m not convinced.  Either way, focusing on one expert takes a lot of the riff-raff opinions out of the equation and makes it easier to understand what is going on.  Lastly, and this is what I struggle with the most, it’s important to simply enjoy the draft for what it is.  Your favorite team has the opportunity to pick up their next wave of franchise players.  As has been proven by guys like Tom Brady (6^th Round), Joe Montana (3^rd Round) and John Randle (Undrafted), you never know when that next great player is going to come along.  The NFL Draft is a wonderful, albeit flawed, event that football fans should enjoy, regardless of the packaging.  The bottom line is that when Roger Goodell walks up to that podium for the first time, all the problems will be washed away for me, and my love for the draft will be renewed…

Unless the Vikings screw this thing up.

Meet the NEW Minnesota Twins

During their recent run of success, the Minnesota Twins have maintained an image of being an undermanned, scrappy, “win at all costs” type of team.  Players like Jacque Jones, Doug Mientkiewitz, and Lew Ford embodied this “battle-your-tail-off” style of baseball during the first half of the run, while guys like Nick Punto, Carlos Gomez, and Alexi Casilla have carried the torch more recently.  Maybe those players weren’t/aren’t the most gifted baseball players in the world, but they do the small things to help a team win games.  Offensively, the Twins were the anti-Yankees.  Their strategy revolved around fielding athletes at as many positions as possible that were going to put the ball in play, take the extra base, and force pitchers to field their position by threatening to bunt at any time.  This offensive game plan employed by Ron Gardenhire and Co. has flown directly in the face of the tactics being used by the American League’s most successful teams over the past decade.  Teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, and Oakland A’s were among the most successful clubs of the 2000’s.  They scored runs by working pitch counts, taking walks, and hitting lots of home runs.  Strikeouts were of little concern, because “Moneyball” views an out as an out, regardless of how it’s recorded.  Billy Beane and his Moneyball system caused teams to rethink the importance of batting average while increasing the importance of players who reach base a lot and hit a lot of homeruns.  The Moneyball system was designed around the power surge that came about during the steroid age of baseball.  While that period seems to be more or less a thing of the past, the tenets of Moneyball remain in use because homeruns still win games.  Just as important to this movement as the changing skill set of the average MLB player was the statistical revolution initiated by baseball numbers guru Bill James and his disciples known as “sabremetrics.”  With the growing popularity of statistics such as OPS (which is simply a players on-base % added to his slugging %), BABIP (which measures a players batting average on balls put in play, eliminating strikeouts and homeruns from the at-bats equation), and ISO (stands for isolated power and is the percentage of extra base hits a player gets per at-bat), teams have been taking a more in depth look into what makes a player a good hitter.  In the past, good hitters would have a .275 batting average, great players would have a .300 average, and poor hitters would hit below .250.  Now, for most teams, it’s not that simple anymore. 

The Minnesota Twins were one team who seemed hell-bent on doing things the old-fashioned way.  Despite the Twins ignoring the new age of statistical analysis, success still found them.  They scouted well, developed their players from within their own organization, and made a few very shrewd trades of veteran players that helped stock the organization with young, affordable talent.  Before Twins fans knew it, success wasn’t a happy surprise anymore; it was expected.  Since 2002, the Twins have won 5 AL Central titles and lost a division tie-breaker.  During that time, Twins players have earned two Cy Young awards (both Johan Santana), two MVP’s (Morneau and Mauer), and three batting titles (all by Mauer).   No other team in baseball can claim as many major awards during that period.  The Twins’ technique for building a baseball team has been different than nearly every other successful team during this era, yet it has lead to these remarkable results.  Despite this, the team has started shift their focus away from their traditional game plan.  Over the past couple of seasons, the Twins have turned their attention towards building a more powerful lineup that can put up runs quickly. 

Joe Mauer became the ideal Moneyball player with his power surge last year.  Even before getting his power, he was a guy who reached base an obscene amount and worked the count consistently.  By adding power, he completed his resume for being a middle-of-the-order hitter for a contending team.  Justin Morneau has focused more and more on being a consistent hitter as opposed to just a power threat.  He had a career high in walks per at-bat in 2009, and as a result, his OBP increased relative to his average.  Jason Kubel, Michael Cuddyer, and Joe Crede (for half the year, anyway) gave the Twins three other legitimate power threats in their lineup.  The result of this increase in power bats led the Twins to hit more homeruns in 2009 than in any season since 2004.  Last season was only the beginning, however.  In the 2009-2010 offseason, the Twins showed a willingness to go outside the organization in order to find the power it was looking for.

Carlos Gomez; a young, talented (albeit inconsistent), and promising player, was traded to Milwaukee for established power hitting shortstop J.J. Hardy.  Gomez is exactly the type of player the Twins have attempted to stockpile in the past, as was evidenced by them acquiring him in the Johan Santana trade before the 2008 season.  In this case, however, the Twins dealt from a strength (outfield depth) in order to fill a hole at a position of need.  Only time will tell how well this trade works out for the Twins, but it shows willingness on the part of the organization to part with pure athleticism in order to obtain a more powerful, polished player who has less upside.  This has never really been the case in the past.  The signing of Jim Thome to be a bat off the bench and backup DH to Jason Kubel followed this move.  This was another transaction that flew in the face of convention for the Twins, as they have typically preferred bench players who were versatile and athletic.  Thome is neither of those things.  Jim has not played so much as an inning at first base since 2007 and has stolen exactly one base in the past seven seasons.  Thome is the epitome of a one-trick-pony at this point in his career, but he provides the Twins with something they haven’t had since the days of Matthew LeCroy; a bat off the bench that can change the game with one swing.  This luxury may prove especially valuable in the playoffs, where the Twins would do well to avoid at bats by Nick Punto and Brendan Harris in tight spots late in games.  Thome may not have much left in the tank, but assuming the Twins can keep his at bats to a minimum and keep his aching back healthy for the entirety of the season, he will make up for his lack of versatility by providing run production off the bench.

As a result of all the moves that have been made and deals that have been handed out, the 2010 Twins look a lot more like a traditional Yankees or Red Sox lineup than the lineups Minnesotans got used to seeing at the dome each year.  The Twins’ current 3-8 hitters are all capable of going deep at any moment.  The question remains as to what the impetus for this transformation was.  One of the main reasons the Twins have favored speed and contact hitters in the past is because it gave them a big home-field advantage on the hard Astroturf that adorned the floor of the Metrodome for the past 28 years.  Ground balls that would be eaten up by the grass at an outdoor park skipped through the infield as though they were rolling on ice.  Balls hit to the gap rolled to the wall as if they had a rocket booster attached to them.  Having speed in the outfield was a necessity at the Dome, and the Twins usually employed as much as they could.  With the move to the new field, the game will slow down a bit, reducing the amount the Twins will have to rely on speed to be effective on their home field. 

The final piece of this transformation seems to have laid with the Twins signing Joe Mauer to an 8 year, $184 million contract at the end of Spring Training.  In the past, the knock on the Twins has been that while they’ve been adept at developing talent, they’ve been unable to lock most of their good players up through their prime seasons.  Johan Santana, Torii Hunter, and Chuck Knoblauch are just a few examples of this principle.  In place of signing these transcendent talents, the Twins have given large deals to above average players and played it off as if they had locked up franchise players.  Contracts given to Brad Radke and Michael Cuddyer over the past decade are great examples of this.  While Radke and Cuddyer were/are good players and have been a big part of the Twins success, they are not top flight players.  However, that was the consolation Twins fans were left with when they were unable to keep their big name talents.  After the 2008 season, Twins brass was able to sign former MVP Justin Morneau to a long term deal that will keep him in Minnesota through the 2013 season.  This signing gave fans hope that a similar deal could be reached with Mauer in the near future.  Somewhat unfortunately for the Twins, Mauer went out in 2009 and had the finest seasons anyone will ever see out of a catcher.  Joe batted .365 last year, and despite missing all of April with a lower back injury, Mauer more than doubled his previous season-high in homeruns by bashing 28 dingers to go along with a career-high 96 RBI.  Mauer’s explosive performance, after being a player who had previously shown nothing more than occasional power, transformed him from being viewed as a Wade Boggs/Tony Gwynn type of hitter to being one of the top three offensive players in all of baseball.  After considering his unique defensive ability as a 6’5” catcher and his youth, it’s hard to say what a team like the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, or Dodgers might have been willing to shell out if Mauer were to hit the open market as a free agent after this season.  The Twins had to have known that allowing Mauer to play out the season without a contract extension would have surely led to them being pushed aside by baseball’s big spenders in the “Mauer Sweepstakes.”  Signing him to a long-term deal prior to the start of the season was their only option that didn’t involve Joe playing somewhere else in 2011.  Had this negotiation dragged into the season, the likelihood that Mauer would have been traded would have risen significantly, as the Twins would have been facing the prospect of losing Joe while only getting a couple of draft picks in return.  All of that is moot now, as Joe will remain a Twin through the 2018 season as a result of his new deal.  Clearly, the Twins learned a lesson from their negotiations with Torii Hunter, and made sure that similar mistakes weren’t made this time around.  When Torii was lost to free agency, it was viewed by Twins fans as being an unfortunate, but not disastrous outcome.  If Mauer had left the same way Hunter did, the Twins might as well have packed up shop and called it a day.  Fortunately, a world without Mauer as a Twin is not something fans will have to worry about for quite a while…if ever.  The Twins new modus operandi allowed them to make a financial commitment that wouldn’t have been possible in the past.

While some fans may long for the years of “Piranha Ball” and “small-market club” excuses, those things appear to be in the past.  With a payroll closing in on $100 million this season and a brand new stadium to show off, the Twins are much more of a “have” than a “have-not.”  Teams like Kansas City, Toronto, Tampa Bay, and Oakland will now be able to add the Twins to the list of teams with which they cannot compete with financially.  The downside of this change in financial position for the Twins is that their built in excuse for failure in the post-season is gone.  Team personnel will now have to be held accountable if the post-season debacles of 2006 and 2009 repeat themselves in the future.  I’ve been as guilty as anyone of giving the Twins a “pass” in the playoffs, saying that it’s great just to watch them play in October.  With all the changes being made within the organization, I’m not sure I’ll be able to be so conciliatory come crunch time this season.  For teams like the Yanks and Red Sox, the rub of being expected to win championships year in and year out is that not winning a ring is viewed as an abject failure.  The Twins have never had to deal with such expectations from their fan base.  In 1987 and 1991, success by the Twins came as a surprise.  Even in recent years, when the team was expected to be successful, winning the division was often enough to placate the Twins’ faithful.  By getting the new ballpark they’ve been clamoring for, and by proving that they finally have the money to keep their top talent, the Twins have stepped out from behind their protective bunker and opened themselves to the same criticism the big market teams are susceptible to. 

This reality has certainly played a role in their change in baseball philosophy.  No longer will fielding a team that is good enough to compete but not really good enough to win be acceptable to the fans.  Hopefully, the end result of the Twins new way of doing business is that they become a perennial World Series contender.  That’s the best case scenario for this club.  The worst case scenario is they become the Cleveland Indians.  When Jacobs Field (now Progressive Field) was built in the mid-90’s, the Indians went from being the doormat of the American League to an annual contender.  While Cleveland had an off-year here or there, they were as good a ballclub as the American League had for about ten years.  The downfall of the Indians came when the luster wore off of their new park and the money dried up.  Players like Manny Ramirez, Kenny Lofton, Jim Thome, Carlos Baerga, and Roberto Alomar fled for more lucrative deals in the early 2000’s.  More recently, the Indians were forced to trade away much of the team that lead them to within one win of the World Series in 2007 due to their increasing salaries.  Victor Martinez, C.C. Sabathia, and Cliff Lee have all been sold off, and rumor has it that Grady Sizemore could be the next to go.  While Cleveland gave teams like the Twins a good blueprint as to how to build a winning club with fresh money, they are also a good example of how new stadium money doesn’t last forever.  Their run of success lasted over a decade, but ended without a championship.  After the buzz created by Target Field is gone, it’s important for the team to keep a good product on the field.  Ultimately, success is the only way to draw fans.  Save for the Chicago Cubs, whose fans seem more interested in the experience of being at Wrigley Field than winning or losing, the teams that consistently draw fans are the ones who win.  The Twins have taken a big step towards ensuring they will be competitive into the next decade by locking up their young star players. 

The next step is to not be content with what has been built.  Issues are going to arise over the next few years that will have to be dealt with.  What will the Twins do when Michael Cuddyer’s deal is up?  When Jason Kubel is free agent eligible?  How will they deal with the uncertain future of Joe Nathan and the impending hole in their closer role?  What are their long term solutions at the infield positions not currently being manned by Mauer and Morneau?  These are all questions that don’t necessarily need to be answered right now, but how they get answered will determine whether the Twins can sustain their success of the past ten years for another ten years.

Great Expectations

No longer must we all reside in the winter of our discontent.  After a baseball offseason that saw the Vikings pull us in, only to once again punch us in the face; saw the Timberwolves do nothing to inspire their fans outside of their two historical losing streaks; saw the Gopher men’s basketball team fight their way through their schedule en route to a disappointing tournament showing following a season filled with suspensions and lackluster effort; saw a Wild team that went into full-on rebuilding mode never really contend for a playoff spot, the return of baseball couldn’t have come at a better time.  With spring in full force here in the upper Midwest and a new open-air stadium for the fans to enjoy, Twins Fever appears to be whipping its way across the area.  A pair of sold-out exhibition games against St. Louis this weekend gave fans and players alike an opportunity to catch a glimpse of what baseball in Minnesota will look like for the foreseeable future, while at the same time whetting our collective appetites for actual, real-deal, now-it-counts baseball.  Well, wait no more, people.  Sunday night’s matchup between the defending champion Yankees and their hated rivals the Red Sox marks the first regular season game of the 2010 MLB Season.  While I will enjoy catching the sounds and sights of baseball for the first time in a while tonight, the real main event starts tomorrow, when the Twins head out to Anaheim.  Never before has a Twins season started with more expectations than this one.  Not only do the Twins have their entire core back from last year’s playoff team, but they’ve added a number of key components.  They have increased their payroll by about $30 million from where they started last year.  Jim Thome will now be hitting homeruns FOR the Twins as opposed to against them (Thome’s 57 HR’s against the Twins are the most against the team by any opposing hitter).  All these things add up to the Twins being better than they’ve been in a long time.  But how good are they, exactly?  Is this a team that could win a World Series right now?  Are they destined to be a one-and-done playoff team for the 5^th straight time?  Since a World Series ring would be the Twins’ third overall, we’ll answer this question by looking at three reasons why they will win the World Series, as well as three reasons why they might have trouble even getting back to the postseason.  So, without further ado, here we go!

Reason for Optimism #1 – The Twins have Joe Mauer.  No one else does.

Joe Mauer has become the clear choice as the best player in the American League.  Only Albert Pujols’ freakish level of productions keeps Mauer from being the best in all of baseball.  Mauer will turn 27 years old during the season’s first week and is coming off back-to-back AL Batting Championships.  He plays a premium position at a very high level (two straight AL Gold Gloves), and last season, he finally displayed the power that scouts have been waiting for since he was drafted out of high school.  In winning his first AL MVP Award last year, Mauer also won the “modern” Triple Crown by leading the AL in batting average, on-base %, and slugging %.  The bottom line is that Mauer is the type of talent that can swing games all on his own.  He can do it from behind the plate, from the batter’s box, and even from the base paths, where he is a deceptively good base runner.  Joe Mauer is the real deal, and maybe more importantly, he’s Minnesota’s real deal until at least 2018.  That’s reassuring.

Reason for Pessimism #1 – Joe Nathan is Dead to Us.

I love Joe Nathan.  I love that he comes into games while “Stand Up and Shout” blares in the background.  I love the way he flutters his lips during tense moments to relieve the pressure of the situation.  I love that the addition of him involved the subtraction of A.J. Pierzynski (the player I love to hate the most).  But mostly, I love how freaking good Nathan has been since he became a Twin in 2004.  He has lead Major Leagues closers in pretty much every relevant statistic over the past six seasons, and during that time, became one of the most respected pitchers in baseball.  Unfortunately, the Twins will not be benefiting from Nathan’s services this year.  A torn elbow ligament has him riding the pine all season, and has the Twins scrambling to find a replacement.  At the beginning of the year, at least, the job will be filled by Jon Rauch.  The Twins picked up Rauch last August in a trade with Arizona to help shore up the 8^th inning, but now Rauch will be asked to get outs a little later in the game.  Rauch has experience as a closer, finishing off 17 saves for the 2008 Washington Nationals before being traded to Arizona.  Rauch is not an overpowering pitcher, despite his 6’11” frame, but he does seem to have the gut needed to get the job done.  Regardless of how good Rauch is, it’s unlikely he will be able to reach the level of excellence we have grown to expect from Nathan.  How will the rest of the team react to a few shaky 9^th innings, or, God forbid, a few blown saves coming in succession?  It’s going to be up to the rest of the team to pick up some slack for the drop in production out of the closer position.  If the team can’t overcome Nathan’s absence, it becomes very possible that either the White Sox or Tigers could sneak up and snatch the Central Division.

Reason for Optimism #2 – The holes in the lineup are few and far between.

At the end of last year, the 6- 7-8-9 hitters for the Twins frequently consisted of Delmon Young, Carlos Gomez, Matt Tolbert, and Nick Punto.  Not exactly a murder’s row.  Delmon came up big in September of 2009, but the other three guys in that group were mediocre, at best.  This year, the 6-7-8-9 for the Twins, at least at the beginning of the season, could frequently be Jason Kubel, Jim Thome, J.J. Hardy, and Nick Punto.  If Delmon proves that his finish to last year was no fluke, then we can replace Thome with Young and keep the rest the same.  Adding that together with a 1-5 of Span, Hudson, Mauer, Morneau, and Cuddyer, and the Twins can field a lineup that can hit with any in the league.  With either Delmon or Thome available each game off the bench, as well as utility infielder Brendan Harris, the Twins bench appears to be as solid as it has been during the Gardenhire era.  Gone are the days of DH Jason Tyner batting leadoff for this team.  Gone are the days of Rondell White getting hundreds upon hundreds of middle of the order at-bats despite doing nothing to earn them.  The Twins batting order is stacked.  Enjoy the revolution.

Reason for Pessimism #2 – Nicky “Freaking” Punto.

Nick Punto is a lot of things.  He is a scrappy base runner who is always looking to take the extra base.  He is an above average fielder at 2B, 3B, and SS.  He typically takes a high number of walks regardless of how well he’s hitting.  All of these attributes make him a prototypical utility infielder.  What they do not make him is a ML-caliber starting third baseman.  That, however, is exactly how Punto will start the year.  Twins fans have seen the good and the bad from Punto over the years, but the bad has typically outweighed any benefit from the good.  In 2006, Punto took over for Tony Batista half way through the season at third base and finished the year hitting a career-high .290 with a career-high 17 stolen bases.  He was the spark plug that set the team on the run it needed to win the division.  Since then, Punto has finished the following three seasons with averages of .210, .284, and .228.  If Punto can find some middle ground and hit around .250 with 15-20 stolen bases, the Twins should have enough punch in the rest of the order to cover up his lack of offense.  With most of the other contenders employing offensively gifted third basemen (Brandon Inge, Adrian Beltre, Alex Rodriguez, Evan Longoria, and Michael Young), the Twins will be at a disadvantage with their Molotov Cocktail of 70% Punto and 30% Harris.  At the end of the day, the Twins likely have enough pop at shortstop and catcher to make up for a lack of it at third.  However, with the backend of the bullpen a big question mark, it would be great to have one more bat in the lineup to help take the importance out of the later innings.  Nick Punto is likely to be a big lightning rod this season for the Twins (unless Cuddyer or Delmon Young struggle…they seem to be favorite targets of the angry fanboys) because his numbers will stand out like a sore thumb in that lineup.  If he falters and hits like last year again, it could be enough to drag the Twins down in what should be a competitive AL Central.

Reason for Optimism #3 – The Starting Pitching is Deep.  Super Deep.

Last year, such pitchers as Anthony Swarzak, R.A. Dickey, Jeff Manship, and Armando Gabino combined to make 19 starts for the Twins.  Their combined major league ERA was 5.72.  Their ERA as starters was 6.37.  That is not good.  Fortunately, the Twins will likely not be forced to trot any of those guys out onto the mound as a starter at any point this year.  With a starting five of Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn, Carl Pavano, Kevin Slowey, and Francisco Liriano, the Twins have a lot to like about their rotation.  Baker showed that he might be ready to prove himself as a 15 wins a year guy.  After starting slowly in 2009, Baker finished the year on a 13-3 run.  Nick Blackburn was a workhorse, leading the team in innings pitched on his way to his second straight 11-11 season.  If Blackburn can limit the number of hits he allows this year a little, he could really take a big jump in the win/loss department.  Pavano is the grizzled veteran of the group, but is coming off his first full season since 2004.  His ERA in 12 starts with the Twins was more than a half run better than it was in 21 starts with Cleveland.  If Pavano can stay healthy, the Twins should expect him to win around 12-15 games with an ERA between 4.50 and 4.75.  I expect Pavano to be the least effective Twins starter this year, and if he can post numbers like that, the Twins will be in very good shape.  Slowey is coming off a season in which he was leading the league in wins at the beginning of June, but then saw his season cut short by a wrist injury.  During Spring Training, Slowey was the best of the Twins starters, posting a 1.95 ERA in 27 2/3 innings.  His early season performance shows that the injury issue has not been a problem so far, and that the Twins can expect him to be back to his normal self.  Liriano had a season to forget last year, going 5-13 with a 5.80 ERA in just over 135 innings.  Control of his fastball and a lack of confidence in his slider were the main causes of trouble for Frankie last year, but early this season, there appears to be reason for optimism.  During winter ball in the Dominican Republic, Liriano was lights out, lowering his walk rate and increasing his strikeouts.  This trend continued for Liriano in Spring Training, as he struck out 30 batters in 20 innings of work while only walking five.  His ERA was a very good 2.70 in Florida and he allowed just one homerun throughout spring.  Francisco is the most intriguing of the Twins starters as he has a history of excellence.  In 2006, he was absolutely lights out during his rookie campaign.  An elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery has slowed him the past three years, but it appears that Liriano has finally worked past the problems.  If he can regain his form of 2006, the Twins may be nearly impossible to deal with in the AL this season.  As important as any of this is the fact that the Twins have quality arms in reserve to take over should any of these guys falter or get injured.  Brian Duensing came on strong at the end of last year and showed that he has the potential to be a part of the future of the franchise.  Glen Perkins had a rough year last year and has been dealing with injuries so far this season, but when he’s healthy and has his head on right, he can be a very effective pitcher.  He started 2009 by throwing 8 innings in each of his first three starts.  This hot start represented the good for Perkins.  The bad was evidenced by having just four quality starts over his next (and last) 14 starts.  Duensing will start the year in the bullpen for the Twins and will be the next-in-line should the Twins need a starter at any point.  Perkins will begin 2010 in AAA Rochester, where he will have the ability to show the Twins that he can be a help to the Major League club.  Should the Twins need starters past those seven, they would still have former Detroit Tiger Mike Maroth available to them.  Should injury issues arise like they did a season ago, the Twins would appear to be very well equipped to deal with them.  I’m not sure there’s another starting rotation in the American League that is as deep as the one the Twins have.  Just as every other team is, the Twins will be at the mercy of the health of their pitchers to some extent, but to have the depth they have goes a long way towards protecting them from the bumps and bruises that can take their toll over the course of the season.

Reason for Pessimism #3 – The Outfield Defense Could Be Offensive.

For years, the Twins have put together great defensive outfields.  As recently as last year, the Twins frequently threw out an outfield of Span in left, Carlos Gomez in center, and Cuddyer in right.  Gomez and Span combined to cover about 80% of the outfield, leaving just a sliver of territory to the less fleet-footed Cuddyer.  Cuddyer brought an A+ arm to right field, and the combination worked well.  This year, however, Gomez is gone, which has forced Span back to his natural centerfield position.  Span is a fine centerfielder, but he’s probably only about 90% of what Gomez was.  The real issue is leftfield.  Denard Span’s move to center has forced the Twins to play either Delmon Young or Jason Kubel in left.  Neither Young nor Kubel are going to ‘wow’ anyone with their swiftness in the outfield.  Young’s problems stem mostly from his bad routes to balls and his difficulty with sharp line drives.  Kubel’s issues are more physical; he simply doesn’t have the speed after multiple knee injuries to run down balls in the gap or down the line that an ideal outfielder has.  Both Jason and Delmon can make up for some of their lack of range with strong throwing arms, but replacing Gomez with either  Kubel or Young represents a big downgrade in defense for a team that has traditionally built themselves around defense and pitching. 

So what’s the final score?  Do the negatives outweigh the positives?  Can the Twins win using a different gameplan than they are accustomed to?  Can Ron Gardenhire ignore his urges to play Nick Punto at third base enough to get some offensive production out of Brendan Harris?  These questions are what will determine the amount of success the Twins are capable of having in 2010.  If the first series of the season is any indication, Twins fans are in for an exciting and successful season.  The issues in the bullpen came up on Opening Day, but since then, the ‘pen has more than held its own by allowing just one run in the final three games.  The offense that everyone expected from this team showed up in the opening series by tallying homeruns in all four games (9 total).  The starting pitchers did their jobs (for the most part), and in the one game Brendan Harris got a start, he cracked a 2-run homer.  There’s a lot to like about this Twins team, and with lots of question marks surrounding the other AL Central teams, it seems like a division championship could be well within reach this season.  But, as I mentioned earlier, the Twins shouldn’t be held to such a low standard anymore.  Can they win a World Series?  I believe that they can.  This is a team build to do well in the playoffs.  They have lots of pop, solid starting pitching, and strong middle relief.  Ron Gardenhire has the trust of these players, and the front office has shown in the past that they’re willing to go get a player if a need arises (maybe a closer or a third baseman this season).  So, obviously, I believe the Twins will be good this year.  How good?  Here are my predictions for the 2010 MLB Season, including major award winners in each league.

AL East – Boston Red Sox

AL Central – Minnesota Twins

AL West – Texas Rangers

AL Wildcard – New York Yankees

AL  MVP – Joe Mauer

AL CY Young – Felix Hernandez

AL Rookie of the Year – Scott Sizemore

NL East – Philadelphia Phillies

NL Central – St. Louis Cardinals

NL West – Colorado Rockies

NL Wildcard – Los Angeles Dodgers

NL MVP – Troy Tulowitzki

NL Cy Young – Roy Halladay

NL Rookie of the Year – Jason Heyward

AL Playoffs:  Twins over Yankees (that’s right), Red Sox over Rangers, Twins over Red Sox

NL Playoffs:  Rockies over Cardinals, Phillies over Dodgers, Rockies over Phillies

World Series:  Twins over Rockies