Now, there are a lot of reasons to assume Green Bay will win this game. They have won the last 5 meetings between these two teams, including a 23-14 come-from-behind victory at Lambeau earlier this season. Aaron Rodgers is playing like an MVP candidate again, closing in on 4000 yards and already having 35 TD's through the air this season. They are relatively healthy, as they expect to get Jordy Nelson and Alex Green back on offense this week. Randall Cobb is unlikely to play, and Charles Woodson is still out, but overall, the health of this team is solid. Rodgers has played consistently well at the Metrodome (and on turf, in general) and seems to enjoy the fast track. What the Vikings do well defensively (13th in the league against the run), is the opposite of what Green Bay wants to do offensively, as Green Bay is unlikely to have a single rusher top 500 yards on the season. What the Vikings do poorly defensively (20th against the pass) plays perfectly into what Green Bay does well. For all these reasons, Green Bay is considered the odds on favorite in this game, despite the battle taking place in Minneapolis.
However, there are a number of things that play to the Vikings favor in this match up. There are five BIG reasons why the Vikings could very easily come out of this game victoriously.
1. Never Bet Against Adrian Peterson!
The 2012 NFL season has served to prove that Adrian Peterson is not of this world. A little over a year ago, Vikings fans watched in horror as AD writhed in pain on the surface of FedEx Field with what was later diagnosed as a torn ACL and MCL in his left knee. Now, we will be watching with baited breath on Sunday to see if Adrian can get to the 208 yards rushing needed to break Eric Dickerson's 28 year old single season record. In the previous matchup between these two teams, Adrian used a number of long runs to post a 210 yard burst in a losing effort. This time around, you can bet he would love to post similar numbers en route to a more successful team result. Ultimately, you bet against Adrian Peterson at your own risk. When he promised to be back for Week 1 last spring, people scoffed. He did it. When he promised to come back faster and stronger than ever, people said it wasn't possible. He did it. When he said that he would be proven innocent in that ugly incident with Houston police last summer, we laughed. He was right. The lesson here is that Adrian Peterson does whatever he wants to do. If he sets his mind to running his club into the playoffs, you're not going to want to have money riding against him. 2. The Vikings are Hot
Three straight wins against tough opponents is enough to make any coach smile late in the season, but Leslie Frazier has to feel especially good against his team's recent effort. Back-to-back losses to Tampa Bay and Seattle seemed to doom the Vikings playoff chances, as many viewed their final six games as a gauntlet which would not be easily cleared. The Vikings endured consecutive losses on the road to Chicago and Green Bay to start their home stretch, leaving them at 6-6 and on the outside of the playoff race looking in. Christian Ponder was struggling to reach 100 yards passing week in and week out. Adrian Peterson was seeing his otherworldly efforts wasted. Even Blair Walsh's robot leg wasn't enough to keep the Vikings competitive against the tough competition they were facing. Then, something changed. The Vikes used another 150+ yard effort from Peterson in tandem with an opportunistic defensive to defeat the Bears in Week 14. A week later, they jumped out to a big early lead against St. Louis and rode another devastatingly good performance by Peterson to a two-score victory over the Rams. In what appeared to be the toughest game in this stretch, the Vikings went into Houston in Week 16 and rolled up a very good Texans team, even as Peterson struggled to just 86 yards and no TD's. Ponder looked competent, the defense was stifling, and Blair Walsh set the NFL record for most made FG's over 50 yards in a single season. An easy 17 point victory was the result, and in winning, the Vikings gave themselves a win-and-in opportunity for Week 17 that made obsolete all those playoff scenarios we'd been hearing about for the previous 3 weeks. Ultimately, Leslie Frazier has this team playing its best ball of the season, and the timing couldn't be better.
3. The Vikings Need it More
Talent levels in the NFL aren't very disparate. With so much ability to go around, the difference between good teams and mediocre teams is often as random as lucky bounces and clock management. Because of the parity that exists in the league, motivation is extremely important. Week in and week out, we see the team who "needs it more" find ways to pull out wins. The Vikings hope this week will be no different. While Green Bay has to view this game as important, there's no replacing the urgency of a win-or-go-home situation. It'll be up to Green Bay to match the intensity the Vikings are sure to bring if they plan to stay in the game. Houston couldn't do it at home last week, so the possibility exists that the Vikings can ride their emotion and adrenaline to a similarly convincing victory.
4. The Vikings Have Played VERY Well at Home
Minnesota sits at 6-1 at home, with their lone loss coming in a Thursday nighter against Tampa Bay that saw them run out of the building. They have defeated quality teams like San Francisco and Chicago at the Dome already this year, setting a precedent for knocking off playoff-caliber opponents in their building. The defense has been more opportunistic at home, forcing 12 turnovers and accumulating nearly 3 sacks per game in the friendly confines. Christian Ponder has been markedly more efficient and explosive at home as opposed to on the road. Opponents are averaging just 18.7 PPG in the Metrodome, while the Vikes have piled up an average of 24.7 at home. All in all, this is a very different team when under the Teflon Sky of the Metrodome. Despite winning their last two road games, I'm sure the Vikings are extremely glad to be playing this game on their field.
5. Special Teams, Special Teams, and Special Teams
I know special teams aren't "sexy," but they seem to find a way to determine more games than you'd think. Minnesota has had, by many accounts, on of the best special team units in the NFL this season. Losing Percy Harvin to an ankle injury has hurt their kick return numbers, but with rookie kicker Blair Walsh connecting on more than 90% of his FG attempts, hitting 49 touchbacks on kickoffs, and Chris Klewe having a career season (39.8 net yards per kick, 7.7 yards per return, and only 2 touchbacks), the Vikings are very strong on special teams. Green Bay, on the other hand, has struggled. Mason Crosby would probably have been released by now if he wasn't in the second year of a 5 year, $14.75 million contract. While the Packers' coverage units are OK, and Tim Masthay has done a nice job punting for them, the Crosby Situation looms large over any close game this team plays at this point of the season. If this game comes down to a late FG attempt, which team do you think feels better sending their kicker out there right now? Even Packer fans will admit that their biggest fear is their season coming down to a 48 yarder from the left hash by Crosby. It's not a good situation, and it offers a clear advantage for the Vikings heading into this final game of the regular season.
There's no question that each team wants to win this one. Green Bay doesn't want to back into the playoffs and be forced to play this same Vikings team two weeks in a row. Minnesota doesn't want to be relegated to scoreboard watching in order to find out if they've made the playoffs, and with Chicago and New York playing at noon on Sunday, it's entirely possible the Vikings will know by kickoff that they will need a win in order to advance. With so much on the line, this game will likely turn on whether Christian Ponder can take care of the ball and whether Minnesota can prevent Green Bay from collecting big plays like bubble gum cards. With those keys clear, the Vikings have no excuse not to be ready for this game. My gut says they will be.
Prediction: Vikings 31, Packers 28
Skol.
