No longer must we all reside in the winter of our discontent. After a baseball offseason that saw the Vikings pull us in, only to once again punch us in the face; saw the Timberwolves do nothing to inspire their fans outside of their two historical losing streaks; saw the Gopher men’s basketball team fight their way through their schedule en route to a disappointing tournament showing following a season filled with suspensions and lackluster effort; saw a Wild team that went into full-on rebuilding mode never really contend for a playoff spot, the return of baseball couldn’t have come at a better time. With spring in full force here in the upper Midwest and a new open-air stadium for the fans to enjoy, Twins Fever appears to be whipping its way across the area. A pair of sold-out exhibition games against St. Louis this weekend gave fans and players alike an opportunity to catch a glimpse of what baseball in Minnesota will look like for the foreseeable future, while at the same time whetting our collective appetites for actual, real-deal, now-it-counts baseball. Well, wait no more, people. Sunday night’s matchup between the defending champion Yankees and their hated rivals the Red Sox marks the first regular season game of the 2010 MLB Season. While I will enjoy catching the sounds and sights of baseball for the first time in a while tonight, the real main event starts tomorrow, when the Twins head out to Anaheim. Never before has a Twins season started with more expectations than this one. Not only do the Twins have their entire core back from last year’s playoff team, but they’ve added a number of key components. They have increased their payroll by about $30 million from where they started last year. Jim Thome will now be hitting homeruns FOR the Twins as opposed to against them (Thome’s 57 HR’s against the Twins are the most against the team by any opposing hitter). All these things add up to the Twins being better than they’ve been in a long time. But how good are they, exactly? Is this a team that could win a World Series right now? Are they destined to be a one-and-done playoff team for the 5th straight time? Since a World Series ring would be the Twins’ third overall, we’ll answer this question by looking at three reasons why they will win the World Series, as well as three reasons why they might have trouble even getting back to the postseason. So, without further ado, here we go!
Reason for Optimism #1 – The Twins have Joe Mauer. No one else does.
Joe Mauer has become the clear choice as the best player in the American League. Only Albert Pujols’ freakish level of productions keeps Mauer from being the best in all of baseball. Mauer will turn 27 years old during the season’s first week and is coming off back-to-back AL Batting Championships. He plays a premium position at a very high level (two straight AL Gold Gloves), and last season, he finally displayed the power that scouts have been waiting for since he was drafted out of high school. In winning his first AL MVP Award last year, Mauer also won the “modern” Triple Crown by leading the AL in batting average, on-base %, and slugging %. The bottom line is that Mauer is the type of talent that can swing games all on his own. He can do it from behind the plate, from the batter’s box, and even from the base paths, where he is a deceptively good base runner. Joe Mauer is the real deal, and maybe more importantly, he’s Minnesota’s real deal until at least 2018. That’s reassuring.
Reason for Pessimism #1 – Joe Nathan is Dead to Us.
I love Joe Nathan. I love that he comes into games while “Stand Up and Shout” blares in the background. I love the way he flutters his lips during tense moments to relieve the pressure of the situation. I love that the addition of him involved the subtraction of A.J. Pierzynski (the player I love to hate the most). But mostly, I love how freaking good Nathan has been since he became a Twin in 2004. He has lead Major Leagues closers in pretty much every relevant statistic over the past six seasons, and during that time, became one of the most respected pitchers in baseball. Unfortunately, the Twins will not be benefiting from Nathan’s services this year. A torn elbow ligament has him riding the pine all season, and has the Twins scrambling to find a replacement. At the beginning of the year, at least, the job will be filled by Jon Rauch. The Twins picked up Rauch last August in a trade with Arizona to help shore up the 8th inning, but now Rauch will be asked to get outs a little later in the game. Rauch has experience as a closer, finishing off 17 saves for the 2008 Washington Nationals before being traded to Arizona. Rauch is not an overpowering pitcher, despite his 6’11” frame, but he does seem to have the gut needed to get the job done. Regardless of how good Rauch is, it’s unlikely he will be able to reach the level of excellence we have grown to expect from Nathan. How will the rest of the team react to a few shaky 9th innings, or, God forbid, a few blown saves coming in succession? It’s going to be up to the rest of the team to pick up some slack for the drop in production out of the closer position. If the team can’t overcome Nathan’s absence, it becomes very possible that either the White Sox or Tigers could sneak up and snatch the Central Division.
Reason for Optimism #2 – The holes in the lineup are few and far between.
At the end of last year, the 6- 7-8-9 hitters for the Twins frequently consisted of Delmon Young, Carlos Gomez, Matt Tolbert, and Nick Punto. Not exactly a murder’s row. Delmon came up big in September of 2009, but the other three guys in that group were mediocre, at best. This year, the 6-7-8-9 for the Twins, at least at the beginning of the season, could frequently be Jason Kubel, Jim Thome, J.J. Hardy, and Nick Punto. If Delmon proves that his finish to last year was no fluke, then we can replace Thome with Young and keep the rest the same. Adding that together with a 1-5 of Span, Hudson, Mauer, Morneau, and Cuddyer, and the Twins can field a lineup that can hit with any in the league. With either Delmon or Thome available each game off the bench, as well as utility infielder Brendan Harris, the Twins bench appears to be as solid as it has been during the Gardenhire era. Gone are the days of DH Jason Tyner batting leadoff for this team. Gone are the days of Rondell White getting hundreds upon hundreds of middle of the order at-bats despite doing nothing to earn them. The Twins batting order is stacked. Enjoy the revolution.
Reason for Pessimism #2 – Nicky “Freaking” Punto.
Nick Punto is a lot of things. He is a scrappy base runner who is always looking to take the extra base. He is an above average fielder at 2B, 3B, and SS. He typically takes a high number of walks regardless of how well he’s hitting. All of these attributes make him a prototypical utility infielder. What they do not make him is a ML-caliber starting third baseman. That, however, is exactly how Punto will start the year. Twins fans have seen the good and the bad from Punto over the years, but the bad has typically outweighed any benefit from the good. In 2006, Punto took over for Tony Batista half way through the season at third base and finished the year hitting a career-high .290 with a career-high 17 stolen bases. He was the spark plug that set the team on the run it needed to win the division. Since then, Punto has finished the following three seasons with averages of .210, .284, and .228. If Punto can find some middle ground and hit around .250 with 15-20 stolen bases, the Twins should have enough punch in the rest of the order to cover up his lack of offense. With most of the other contenders employing offensively gifted third basemen (Brandon Inge, Adrian Beltre, Alex Rodriguez, Evan Longoria, and Michael Young), the Twins will be at a disadvantage with their Molotov Cocktail of 70% Punto and 30% Harris. At the end of the day, the Twins likely have enough pop at shortstop and catcher to make up for a lack of it at third. However, with the backend of the bullpen a big question mark, it would be great to have one more bat in the lineup to help take the importance out of the later innings. Nick Punto is likely to be a big lightning rod this season for the Twins (unless Cuddyer or Delmon Young struggle…they seem to be favorite targets of the angry fanboys) because his numbers will stand out like a sore thumb in that lineup. If he falters and hits like last year again, it could be enough to drag the Twins down in what should be a competitive AL Central.
Reason for Optimism #3 – The Starting Pitching is Deep. Super Deep.
Last year, such pitchers as Anthony Swarzak, R.A. Dickey, Jeff Manship, and Armando Gabino combined to make 19 starts for the Twins. Their combined major league ERA was 5.72. Their ERA as starters was 6.37. That is not good. Fortunately, the Twins will likely not be forced to trot any of those guys out onto the mound as a starter at any point this year. With a starting five of Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn, Carl Pavano, Kevin Slowey, and Francisco Liriano, the Twins have a lot to like about their rotation. Baker showed that he might be ready to prove himself as a 15 wins a year guy. After starting slowly in 2009, Baker finished the year on a 13-3 run. Nick Blackburn was a workhorse, leading the team in innings pitched on his way to his second straight 11-11 season. If Blackburn can limit the number of hits he allows this year a little, he could really take a big jump in the win/loss department. Pavano is the grizzled veteran of the group, but is coming off his first full season since 2004. His ERA in 12 starts with the Twins was more than a half run better than it was in 21 starts with Cleveland. If Pavano can stay healthy, the Twins should expect him to win around 12-15 games with an ERA between 4.50 and 4.75. I expect Pavano to be the least effective Twins starter this year, and if he can post numbers like that, the Twins will be in very good shape. Slowey is coming off a season in which he was leading the league in wins at the beginning of June, but then saw his season cut short by a wrist injury. During Spring Training, Slowey was the best of the Twins starters, posting a 1.95 ERA in 27 2/3 innings. His early season performance shows that the injury issue has not been a problem so far, and that the Twins can expect him to be back to his normal self. Liriano had a season to forget last year, going 5-13 with a 5.80 ERA in just over 135 innings. Control of his fastball and a lack of confidence in his slider were the main causes of trouble for Frankie last year, but early this season, there appears to be reason for optimism. During winter ball in the Dominican Republic, Liriano was lights out, lowering his walk rate and increasing his strikeouts. This trend continued for Liriano in Spring Training, as he struck out 30 batters in 20 innings of work while only walking five. His ERA was a very good 2.70 in Florida and he allowed just one homerun throughout spring. Francisco is the most intriguing of the Twins starters as he has a history of excellence. In 2006, he was absolutely lights out during his rookie campaign. An elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery has slowed him the past three years, but it appears that Liriano has finally worked past the problems. If he can regain his form of 2006, the Twins may be nearly impossible to deal with in the AL this season. As important as any of this is the fact that the Twins have quality arms in reserve to take over should any of these guys falter or get injured. Brian Duensing came on strong at the end of last year and showed that he has the potential to be a part of the future of the franchise. Glen Perkins had a rough year last year and has been dealing with injuries so far this season, but when he’s healthy and has his head on right, he can be a very effective pitcher. He started 2009 by throwing 8 innings in each of his first three starts. This hot start represented the good for Perkins. The bad was evidenced by having just four quality starts over his next (and last) 14 starts. Duensing will start the year in the bullpen for the Twins and will be the next-in-line should the Twins need a starter at any point. Perkins will begin 2010 in AAA Rochester, where he will have the ability to show the Twins that he can be a help to the Major League club. Should the Twins need starters past those seven, they would still have former Detroit Tiger Mike Maroth available to them. Should injury issues arise like they did a season ago, the Twins would appear to be very well equipped to deal with them. I’m not sure there’s another starting rotation in the American League that is as deep as the one the Twins have. Just as every other team is, the Twins will be at the mercy of the health of their pitchers to some extent, but to have the depth they have goes a long way towards protecting them from the bumps and bruises that can take their toll over the course of the season.
Reason for Pessimism #3 – The Outfield Defense Could Be Offensive.
For years, the Twins have put together great defensive outfields. As recently as last year, the Twins frequently threw out an outfield of Span in left, Carlos Gomez in center, and Cuddyer in right. Gomez and Span combined to cover about 80% of the outfield, leaving just a sliver of territory to the less fleet-footed Cuddyer. Cuddyer brought an A+ arm to right field, and the combination worked well. This year, however, Gomez is gone, which has forced Span back to his natural centerfield position. Span is a fine centerfielder, but he’s probably only about 90% of what Gomez was. The real issue is leftfield. Denard Span’s move to center has forced the Twins to play either Delmon Young or Jason Kubel in left. Neither Young nor Kubel are going to ‘wow’ anyone with their swiftness in the outfield. Young’s problems stem mostly from his bad routes to balls and his difficulty with sharp line drives. Kubel’s issues are more physical; he simply doesn’t have the speed after multiple knee injuries to run down balls in the gap or down the line that an ideal outfielder has. Both Jason and Delmon can make up for some of their lack of range with strong throwing arms, but replacing Gomez with either Kubel or Young represents a big downgrade in defense for a team that has traditionally built themselves around defense and pitching.
So what’s the final score? Do the negatives outweigh the positives? Can the Twins win using a different gameplan than they are accustomed to? Can Ron Gardenhire ignore his urges to play Nick Punto at third base enough to get some offensive production out of Brendan Harris? These questions are what will determine the amount of success the Twins are capable of having in 2010. If the first series of the season is any indication, Twins fans are in for an exciting and successful season. The issues in the bullpen came up on Opening Day, but since then, the ‘pen has more than held its own by allowing just one run in the final three games. The offense that everyone expected from this team showed up in the opening series by tallying homeruns in all four games (9 total). The starting pitchers did their jobs (for the most part), and in the one game Brendan Harris got a start, he cracked a 2-run homer. There’s a lot to like about this Twins team, and with lots of question marks surrounding the other AL Central teams, it seems like a division championship could be well within reach this season. But, as I mentioned earlier, the Twins shouldn’t be held to such a low standard anymore. Can they win a World Series? I believe that they can. This is a team build to do well in the playoffs. They have lots of pop, solid starting pitching, and strong middle relief. Ron Gardenhire has the trust of these players, and the front office has shown in the past that they’re willing to go get a player if a need arises (maybe a closer or a third baseman this season). So, obviously, I believe the Twins will be good this year. How good? Here are my predictions for the 2010 MLB Season, including major award winners in each league.
AL East – Boston Red Sox
AL Central – Minnesota Twins
AL West – Texas Rangers
AL Wildcard – New York Yankees
AL MVP – Joe Mauer
AL CY Young – Felix Hernandez
AL Rookie of the Year – Scott Sizemore
NL East – Philadelphia Phillies
NL Central – St. Louis Cardinals
NL West – Colorado Rockies
NL Wildcard – Los Angeles Dodgers
NL MVP – Troy Tulowitzki
NL Cy Young – Roy Halladay
NL Rookie of the Year – Jason Heyward
AL Playoffs: Twins over Yankees (that’s right), Red Sox over Rangers, Twins over Red Sox
NL Playoffs: Rockies over Cardinals, Phillies over Dodgers, Rockies over Phillies
World Series: Twins over Rockies
very optimistic playoff picks, i would love to see it work out that way.
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