With pitchers and catchers reporting in a mere two and a half weeks, I’ve been getting that familiar itch recently. With the Vikings season over, the Gophers hoops squad mired in annoying mediocrity, and the Timberwolves an afterthought, at best (Wolves! Mavericks! 7:30pm Friday on Ch. 45! Catch the Fever!), the Twins are suddenly the most appetizing sports discussion option in Minnesota.
Many Twins fans have been left with bittersweet memories of the 2009 season. If the high point of the year was the Twins play-in game victory against the Tigers that sent the squad to the playoffs, then the low point was probably the Game 2 loss to the New York Yankees in the American League Divisional Series. In a strange twist of fate, I really didn’t see either of those games. I was at a dinner that my dad was being honored at during the game against Detroit and only saw the first 7 or so innings. Needless to say, I missed the good part. During the second game of the Yanks series I was refereeing a high school football game and turned on the radio in the car just in time to hear the blown call on Mauer’s shot down the line. About two minutes later, Mark Teixeira hit a walk-off homerun, and just like that, all the good vibes from the win over Detroit were all but gone. The Yanks finished off the Twins in Game 3, and the season was over.
Still, despite the disappointing finish to the year, just getting to the playoffs felt like stealing. When Justin Morneau was ruled out for the season at the beginning of September, most assumed the Twins’ chances for a comeback were over. However, even without the former MVP, the Twins went on a 17-4 run to end the season in order to catch up to Detroit, and then passed them in that final game. All in all, the 2009 season has to be viewed as a success. In the second year PS (Post Santana), the Twins not only reached the playoffs, but won the division. Joe Mauer won his third batting championship in four years and his first MVP award. Denard Span and Jason Kubel each had breakout-type seasons and solidified themselves as everyday players. With seven of the nine spots in the lineup pretty-well taken care of and a myriad of pitching options at the Twins disposal, I think it’s safe to say that there are fewer questions surrounding the Twins than at any time in recent memory. Nonetheless, there are a few unsolved mysteries left to discuss regarding the 2010 Minnesota Twins. Here are the big three.
1. How is the second/third base situation going to shake out?
(Update: I wrote this section Thursday night before news of the Hudson signing was announced. Call me Nostradamus. Either way, second base is no longer an issue, but the third base question remains.)
If the season were to start today, right now, immediately, I think we’d see some amalgamation of Matt Tolbert, Nick Punto, Alexi Casilla, and Brendan Harris at these two spots. The likely candidates to be the “regular” starters would be Punto at second and Harris at third, with Tolbert playing the role of uber-utility guy. Casilla, in this alignment, would likely find himself back playing in Rochester for the AAA affiliate. However, the season does not begin today, and there is scuttlebutt surrounding the Twins being close to an agreement with former Blue Jay/Diamondback/Dodger second baseman Orlando “O-Dog” Hudson. Hudson has been a very productive offensive player who makes solid contact, has a pretty good eye, and possesses a modicum of power. Aside from his offense, Hudson has won four Gold Gloves over the past five years, including one last season for the Dodgers, when he committed just 8 errors in 692 total chances. Despite his undeniable upside as a player, Hudson does come with a few bugs included. Last season, he started 143 games at second base for the Dodgers before losing his job at the end of the season and spending most of LA’s playoff run planted firmly on the bench. While his lack of offense and replacement Ronnie Belliard’s hot streak down the stretch were certainly contributing factors to Hudson’s demotion, there were grumblings from Dodger’s camp all year that suggested he may not be the best teammate, but these rumors are largely unsubstantiated. Ultimately, the Twins would do very well to shore up second base by bringing in Hudson. Eliminating one of the two infield holes would allow Gardy to rotate Harris and Punto in at third, with whichever one isn’t in the lineup acting as the backup at all three infield spots. I think any hope of signing a decent third baseman is all but gone, meaning that the position will have to be filled with in-house options. Eventually, the job seems to belong to minor league prospect Danny Valencia, but with Valencia not receiving an end-of-the-year call up last season, it seems unlikely that he would hold the job coming out of spring training. The Twins are notorious for delaying the arbitration/free agency clock on minor leaguers if at all possible, so expect Valencia to start the year in AAA, but don’t be surprised if he’s the Twins regular at the hot corner by the All Star break. Short of Hudson being brought aboard, it would appear that both of these positions will be somewhat up for grabs during Spring Training. I’m sure Gardy would love to see someone like Valencia or Casilla show up and really win one of the jobs, but with Valencia being so inexperienced and with Casilla being, well, Casilla, those possibilities seem slim. There is no shortage of options for the Twins at those two spots, but I think it’s safe to say that none of the in-house options are all that palatable to the fans.
Predicted Outcome: Twins sign Hudson, he plays second base with Harris and Punto splitting AB’s at 3rd. (Seriously…this was written prior to the signing. You believe me, right?)
2. What is the starting rotation going to look like?
The good news for the Twins starting pitching prospects is that the team has a number of very solid options who are difficult to distinguish between. The bad news for the Twins’ starting pitching prospects is that the team has a number of very solid options who are difficult to distinguish between. Gone are the days of Johan Santana and Brad Radke leading the rotation with guaranteed quality start after guaranteed quality start. Things are a little more amorphous now, as the pecking order within the rotation seemed to change weekly during last season. The current suspects to be in the rotation on Opening Day are Scott Baker, Carl Pavano, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, Francisco Liriano, Glen Perkins, and Brian Duensing, with Anthony Swarzak being a potential dark horse. There have been rumors that the Twins offered Wisconsin-native Jarrod Washburn a 1 year, $5 million deal, but that was before Pavano accepted the Twins’ offer of arbitration and was kept on-board. My guess is that Pavano staying means that the Twins interest in Washburn is, at best, limited. I will be working under the assumption that Washburn will not be a Twin in 2010. The seemingly sure things to be included in the starting five are Baker, Pavano, and Blackburn. Those three guys did enough to prove their value last year that they likely aren’t going to have to consider Spring Training as anything more than prep for the regular season. That means that there are six pitchers vying for 2 spots in the rotation. Kevin Slowey could easily be added to the list of sure things, but given the fact his season ended due to a wrist injury, I think it’s safer to avoid assuming we know what the Twins will get from him early in the season. All reports have him bouncing back from the surgery nicely, but he may need a little extra time at the season’s onset before being ready to take his spot in the rotation. However, if Slowey comes back anywhere near full strength, then there is really only one spot left for Swarzak and the three lefties to battle for. Swarzak had a few nice outings for the Twins last year, but his inconsistency eventually led to him being sent back to the minors. He is likely still a year or so away from being a reliable option, and thus is not a likely candidate for the final spot in the rotation. However, if a couple of the lefties fall on their faces in spring and Swarzak pitches lights out, Gardy may decide to give him a chance at the beginning of the year. Swarzak has good stuff and a high ceiling, but as we saw a year ago, he’s still a bit raw and has trouble throwing strikes consistently. That’s a real no-no for the Twins and will probably be the reason he starts 2010 in the minors. This leaves Duensing, Perkins, and Liriano as the likely candidates to fill the 5th spot. There is little question whom the Twins coaching staff would like to see earn that final spot. While all three of these pitchers have proven to be capable of pitching at a high level in the majors, Francisco Liriano has, by far, the most upside of the trio. Liriano was well on his way to a Rookie of the Year award in 2006 and possibly a Cy Young before a torn ligament in his elbow derailed his once bright future. Liriano showed some flashes of his hold stuff last year, but was largely a disappointment. Despite his struggles in the majors, Liriano has pitched exceptionally well in the very competitive Dominican Winter League, with his performance culminating in a dominating 5 inning, 1 hit, 0 run, 10 K game in the championship game that his team won. If Liriano comes back anywhere close to his 2006 pre-injury form, the rest of the American League is going to have to deal with Johan Santana 2.0. If he can’t make the return, it would seem the bullpen might still be a viable option for him, which would give Perkins or Duensing a shot at the rotation. Perkins is a guy who could well be traded before the beginning of the season. It’s possible that Perk would have already been dealt, but teams that might be interested may still have concerns over his oft-injured shoulder and would like to see him throw in spring before committing to any deal for the Stillwater, MN native. Perkins has had issues on and off the field. He has mixed up a few brilliant starts at the Major League level with a few really bad ones. The problem with evaluating these starts is that no one seems to be sure when Perkins is healthy and when he is not. He pitched at least part of last season while dealing with an undisclosed shoulder injury that ultimately ended his season. When the Twins declined to add him to the major league roster upon his return from injury, instead optioning him to AAA, Perkins handled the situation like a true professional by filing a grievance with the union against the team. The grievance was dealt with privately, but it would not be surprising if bad blood still existed on each side. Regardless of this incident, Duensing was very sharp at the end of the season and likely had moved ahead of Perkins based on performance alone. Duensing pitched admirably in a tough spot against the Yankees in the playoffs and showed that he could be relied upon in big games. All of these guys seem to have a claim to that 5th and final spot in the rotation, but only one will be able to claim it.
Prediction: Pavano, Baker, Blackburn, Slowey, and Liriano get the starting nod, Duensing pitches out of the ‘pen, Swarzak goes to AAA, and Perkins is either traded or optioned to the minors.
3. How will the Twins manage the at-bats of Delmon Young, Jason Kubel, and Jim Thome?
The addition of Thome to the roster answered the question of who the big bat on the bench will be in 2010, but created a question as to how Thome will ultimately be used. In a perfect world, Gardy would love to write Delmon and Kubel into the lineup at LF and DH 150 times this year. They are each young players with a lot of ability, but each has their weaknesses. Kubel has had his issues against LH pitching throughout his career. Last season, Kubel had an amazing .300/.369/.540 line overall, but hit just .243/.299/.345 against lefties. (For those of you not in the know, those numbers I just used stand for a player’s batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. If you don’t know what those three things calculate, I can’t help you.) Regardless of the configuration of the lineup, Kubel is likely going to have to play against lefties, meaning that he’ll have to improve or risk losing AB’s to Brendan Harris. Brendan might be a nice guy, but I don’t think it would do much for Kubel’s self-esteem to lose playing time to him. Thome didn’t fare much better against lefties last year, going .209/.314/.429. The best bet against lefties would seem to be to leave Delmon in leftfield and hope that Kubel turns it around against southpaws. Jason still has only logged about 400 at bats against lefties in the major leagues, and former Twins manager Tom Kelly has always said that you need to have a sample size of 1000 at bats before you really know what a player is, so there is the potential for improvement there. The real conundrum comes when the Twins face tough RH starting pitchers. Delmon Young has been quite the enigma for the Twins over the past two seasons. Last year, for example, he managed to hit under .250 in both April and May and hit just three homeruns prior to August 1st. From August 1 to the end of the season, however, Delmon hit over .300, cracked 9 HR’s, and saw his on-base % increase dramatically. This begs the question heading into this season of which Delmon are we going to get? Will we get the guy resembling a big kid who hasn’t figured out how to manage his suddenly massive body, or will we get the guy who can knock a ball as far as anybody on the team and be a real menace at the bottom of the order? If we get more of the former than the latter, expect to see Thome DH against righties with Kubel playing left field and “Del-Money” riding the bench.
Prediction: Thome is used largely as a spot starter at DH and pinch hitter, ends up with about 200 AB’s, while Delmon breaks through and Kubel continues to hit like he did a year ago.
There is a lot to like about this season’s incarnation of the Minnesota Twins. With Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, Kubel, and Span, there is a lot of top-end talent to be excited about. With the potential addition of Orlando Hudson and the already completed additions of shortstop JJ Hardy and DH Jim Thome, there are plenty of new-comers to get to know as the season moves along. With the late-season addition of Jon Rausch last year and the potential return of side-slinging Minnesotan Pat Neshek to the back-end of the bullpen, the relief unit has the potential to be much improved over where it began last year. Gone are the likes of Sean Henn and Bobby Keppel, hopefully gone are the 6 run innings against the bullpen that happened a little too frequently in 2009. With the Twins having resolved most of their issues prior to Spring Training, I’m looking forward to the start of the season as much as I have in a long time.
Season Prediction: Yeah, right. I’m not ready yet. I’ll do this after Spring Training.
