Is the Draft Ready for Prime Time?

I love the NFL Draft.  It has been one of my favorite pseudo-sporting events for quite some time (right up there with the NBA Draft, my league’s Fantasy Football Draft, and the NHL).  Up until recently, I really enjoyed all of the information the NFL Draft allowed me to drink in.  I loved that there were hundreds of names for me to learn before the draft began.  I took pride in being able to share my educated opinion on the majority of the guys who would be taken in the seven rounds of action.  I liked that there were easy to understand numbers that aided me in forming my opinions, like 40 yard dash times to illustrate pure speed, vertical jumps to display explosiveness, and shuttle run times to determine quickness.  I liked being able to pick out sleepers from small schools or with poor measurables who were going to go two rounds later than they should and surprise all the pundits.  The simplicity of it all was what made it great.  However, that simplicity has gone out the window in recent years.  The draft has gone from being something that was tailored to the diehard fans to being packaged for the masses.  The same way nationally broadcasted sporting events infuriate me with their unsophisticated coverage, ESPN’s (the King of the Draft) coverage of the draft now panders to the lowest common denominator among their viewers while beating us over the head with their voluminous coverage.

While there are many problems with the way the draft is currently covered by the major media outlets, I believe that each issue stems from the amount of cooks in the kitchen.  For the sake of clarity, I’ll focus mainly on the coverage provided by ESPN, as they are the ones who actually televise the event.  Back in the good old days, Mel Kiper, Jr. was the be-all, end-all of draft information.  He had great sources, great incite, and great hair.  He was the total package.  For about three weeks a year, he was on TV more than David Letterman as he gave his opinions on who would be good, who would be a bust, and what player was going to be taken where.  It was the perfect amount of information.  Having Kiper, Jr. as the main voice in my ear allowed me to either agree or disagree with what was essentially the consensus opinion.  Every once in a while, Chris Mortensen would chime in from some team’s headquarters, but nothing he said really meant anything.  I have a strong belief that NFL front office executives were put on this earth to lie to us and send us in the wrong direction, so any information they gave Mort was likely a ruse.  Come draft day, the only opinion that meant anything was Mel’s.  Today, ESPN has two full time draft analyzers that do their work year round (Kiper, Jr. and the enigmatic Todd McShay), a blogger for each division in the NFL who opines on all thing NFL draft during the period from the Super Bowl until Draft Day, and an entire website (Scouts INC.) that contributes mock drafts, player projections, and copious articles.  Add that to the contributions of other ESPN football staff (John Clayton, the afore-mentioned Mortensen, Adam Schefter, ect…), and the amount of information regarding the draft that is available is simply overwhelming.  In most cases, the more information there is available on a certain topic, the better.  But when something like the NFL Draft is concerned, this couldn’t be further from the case.  There no longer exists any consensus opinion on anything.  Is Tim Tebow going to be great or a bust?  It depends on who you ask.  Is Sam Bradford the franchise quarterback that he’ll have to be in order to justify going 1^st overall on Thursday?  Sure!  Well…maybe.  Ask again later.  This has become the problem.  With so many different opinions stemming from information gained from an uncountable number of sources, the opinion regarding an individual player can changes daily.  A player can go from being slotted 10^th overall to being a borderline first round pick based solely on what some guy heard from some other guy.  That player’s ability didn’t change over the course of a few hours.  He didn’t become a worse football player.  He didn’t lose any of his desire to play the game.  Someone simply decided that his value should change.  The rub of all this is that none of this conjecture has anything to do with how the teams view the draft.  Back in the day, teams used a scouting service to give them rundowns of the prospects, but in the modern age of competitive sports, such a system really isn’t palatable any longer.  Each team has their own system and their own scouting personnel that determines how they draft and who they draft.  All this information ESPN is produces simply for the use by the fans, which means that the more often things change, the more they can write about it, and the more page views ESPN.com gets.  Which brings me to my next point:  Money is the reason for everything crappy in sports, including changes to the draft.

Tonight (Thursday), the NFL Draft begins with the first round being aired in primetime on ESPN.  On Friday, the second and third rounds will begin at 5pm CDT.  Saturday, the draft concludes with rounds 4-7.  Three days?  Really?  Three f#%&ing days?  The MLB’s Rule 4 (Amateur) Draft only takes three days, and it has 50 rounds!  Why should the seven round NFL draft take just as long?  Money, my friends…Money.  The NFL is a cash cow for networks.  It is easily the biggest sport in North America, and nobody understands sports exploitation better than ESPN.  If there’s a dollar to be made, The Worldwide Leader will make it.  This is the same network that once tricked Baltimore Orioles’ third baseman Miguel Tejada into coming in for an interview to answer some “baseball questions,” only to throw a birth certificate in his face that suggested Miguel was a couple of years older than he was representing.  You stay classy, ESPN.  The draft moving to primetime is just another way to make a buck.  People will watch tonight.  Lots of people.  People will watch tomorrow night.  Lots of people.  Advertisers will pay big bucks for spots during the early picks.  Chris Berman will reference bands and actors from the 60’s that no one under the age of 35 has ever heard of (I’m not sure if those obscure references get any money for being mentioned…I’ll look into it).  The drama will be thick as Jimmy Clausen slips further and further into the first round (Clausen pulled a fast one on ESPN by deciding not to show up to the draft in order to spend the night with his grandfather.  ESPN will make sure this costs him).  Everything is in place to make ESPN a load of money on this thing, which means that we had better get used to the format.  Money makes the world go round, baby.

So what can the average “Draft Rube” do to come to terms with all these changes to this wonderful event that has made it more accessible?  I’m a big proponent of Mock Draft Leagues.  This is a great way to prove to yourself how smart you are!  (Never mind the fact that you’ll get about 10 of the 32 first round picks correct.  It’s not about the results, it’s about the process.  Now go get another beer and finish up that second round mock!)  Second, pick your favorite draft expert and focus mainly on his information.  For me, it’s always been Mel Kiper, Jr.  He knows the system.  He knows the front office guys.  He scouts college players very well.  He’s my guy.  Some people really like Todd McShay.  He’s a little young for my taste.  How could someone who looks like he’s fresh out of college have the grizzled nature it takes to do this work?  I’m not convinced.  Either way, focusing on one expert takes a lot of the riff-raff opinions out of the equation and makes it easier to understand what is going on.  Lastly, and this is what I struggle with the most, it’s important to simply enjoy the draft for what it is.  Your favorite team has the opportunity to pick up their next wave of franchise players.  As has been proven by guys like Tom Brady (6^th Round), Joe Montana (3^rd Round) and John Randle (Undrafted), you never know when that next great player is going to come along.  The NFL Draft is a wonderful, albeit flawed, event that football fans should enjoy, regardless of the packaging.  The bottom line is that when Roger Goodell walks up to that podium for the first time, all the problems will be washed away for me, and my love for the draft will be renewed…

Unless the Vikings screw this thing up.

The Agony of Defeat

This was an article that probably should have been written earlier in the week, but I just couldn’t bring myself to do it. Even though I’m 26 years old, I still live and die with my Minnesota teams, and without a doubt, I am connected strongest to the Vikings. Football lends itself to an emotional attachment between the teams and their fans, and I have certainly fallen victim to the dark side of that relationship on a few occasions. Three times in my life the Vikings have lost games that absolutely ripped my heart out, with each loss having its own gut-wrenching dynamic.

In 1999, The Game Who’s Name We Shall Not Speak still makes me shudders when I think about it. The NFL Network played a replay of that game last year, and I thought about watching it, but just couldn’t bring myself to do it. Even 10 years later, the wounds were still too fresh. What made this one sting so much was that the Vikings were clearly the best team in the NFC all year, going 15-1 during the regular season, with their lone loss coming in a close game in Tampa Bay. With an offense that consisted of rookie Randy Moss, Cris Carter, Jake Reed, Robert Smith, a rejuvenated Randall Cunningham, and one of the best o-lines ever constructed, the Vikings set an NFL record for points scored in a season. Even in The Game Who’s Name We Shall Not Speak, the Vikes were in control of things the entire time. Gary Anderson, who became the first kicker in NFL history to go through an entire NFL season without missing an extra point or field goal, hooked a 39 yard kick late in the 4^th quarter that would have sealed the deal. All in all, this is the toughest loss I’ve ever had to endure as a sports fan. I was just 15 years old when the game was played, and was simply ill-equipped to deal with such a blow.

In 2003, the second “Heartbreak Hotel” game of my Vikings fandom occurred in Arizona, when a last second TD by the Cardinals knocked the Vikings out of the playoffs. What makes this game hurt still today is that the final score would not count under the NFL’s current rules regarding receivers being forced out of bounds. Cardinals’ receiver Nate Poole was ruled to have been pushed out of bounds prior to landing with the ball, which at the time constituted a complete pass. The force out rule was abolished a couple of years ago. This falls below The Game Who’s Name We Shall Not Speak on the “agony meter” because the Vikings were not a great team that year and likely would have been an easy out in the playoffs. Still, it really sucked. I was catatonic for a good hour after that one.

The third game, and the potential leader in the clubhouse as most painful Vikings losses of my life, happened on Sunday in New Orleans. It’s still too soon to evaluate the historical significance of this loss, but my gut tells me that I won’t be forgetting this game for quite some time. The Vikes and Saints were both coming off of blowout wins in the Divisional Playoff round, with the Vikings beating a Cowboys team that had defeated the Saints in New Orleans late in the regular season. The Saints were coming off of an equally impressive victory over a Cardinals club that had destroyed the Vikings in Arizona just a few weeks earlier. Each team had prolific offenses with playmakers at every position. Drew Brees was the NFL’s highest rated passer during the regular season. Brett Favre was the second rated passer. The Vikings defense had its issues stopping teams with quick-strike passing attacks, which was the exact style the Saints had employed all season. The Saints had their problems with teams who like to run the ball between the tackles, and with Adrian Peterson lining up behind the quarterback for the Vikes, they were certainly capable of exploiting this weakness. Every stat, trend, and matchup pointed to this game being an epic battle between two evenly matched opponents that could go down in the books as one of the best NFC Championship games ever. While the two teams proved to not be as evenly matched as most people thought, the game was certainly an instant classic…if you’re a Saints fan. I am not a Saints fan. This game sucked.

(Disclaimer: The following argument is not in any way meant to discredit the effort the Saints gave on Sunday. They played hard, if not well, and in the end probably deserved to win that game despite all that I’m about to discuss. I’m happy for the people of New Orleans, who needed this win as much as any fan base has needed any win, but that doesn’t mean I have to like it. So there.)

While most of the so-called pundits proclaimed during the week leading up to the game that the Saints were the better team and that the Vikings would need to play a perfect game to beat them, I felt this viewpoint to be erroneous. I had seen enough of each of these squads to form the opinion that, all in all, the Vikings had more talent and that it was the Saints who would have to play up to their level. While a lot of people were making a big deal about the noise of the Superdome being a big issue for Minnesota, the truth of the matter is that such trivialities mean very little in games of such magnitude. It’s not as if the Vikings were going to show up for the game, hear the crowd noise, and get intimidated and decide to go home. Crowd noise is typically only an issue for the first couple of drives in a game, if that. In this case, the Viking went down the field and scored a TD on their first possession, indicating that the noise was not going to be a problem. My pre-game analysis was that if the Vikings played to their potential, there was nothing the Saints would be able to do to overcome the gap in ability on the field. It turns out that I may have been right. Unfortunately, none of that mattered.

The Vikings dominated the Saints on Sunday. I repeat: The Vikings DOMINATED the Saints on Sunday. They outgained the Saints by over 200 yards, becoming the first team to do this and lose an NFL playoff game in the history of the NFL playoffs. Brett Favre, despite getting the ever-living snot knocked out of him, played well enough to win that football game. His interception at the end of regulation was devastating, but as I will illustrate, he shouldn’t have been in a situation where he had to make a play at the end of the game for the Vikings to win. Adrian Peterson ran with authority and was as good as he had been all season. Defensively, the Vikings slowed the Saints running game and kept enough pressure on Brees to make him uncomfortable in the pocket and force some uncharacteristically errant throws from the 2009 MVP runner-up. The Saints had seven drives that were 3-and-outs and only had two drives that lasted more than 4 plays during regulation (their first two TD drives). The Saints never had a possession last longer than 3:05 until their overtime drive, which lasted 4:45. The Saints never gained more than 9 yards on any drive that didn’t result in points. They averaged more than 4 yards per play on just three of their 14 possessions. Cumulatively, these stats display just how dominating the Vikes were defensively throughout the game. If you had told me before the game that all the previous occurrences would take place, I would have said that the Vikings probably won going away. However, numerous mistakes by the offense and a little help in some key spots from the refs made sure that wasn’t the case.

I’m not going to blame the referees for this loss. It would be really easy to do so, but I’m not going to stoop to that level. I will, however, discuss the three calls that truly changed the course of this game. The three game changers (in chronological order) were the no-call on Bobby McCray’s low hit on Favre, the replay “confirmation” of Pierre Thomas’ first down run in overtime, and the pass interference penalty on Ben Leber that set up the game winning FG for the Saints. The most important of these was the call on 4^th and 1 that gave the Saints that all-important first down in OT. Initially, it seemed as though Thomas clearly reached the line-to-gain and had the first down. Upon further review, it was evident that Chad Greenway’s helmet knocked the ball loose from Thomas’ grip and that by the time he regained possession he had been pushed back behind the first down line. In my admittedly biased view, it was clear that after fumbling and recovering the ball, Thomas was nowhere near the first down anymore. I was in complete shock that the call was not overturned. Had it been, it is likely that the Vikings would have been able to get the 30 or so yards they needed to get into field goal range and would have at least had a chance to win the game. The least important was probably the PI on Leber, although it may have been the most egregious call of the three. First of all, I’m not sure there was ever any contact that should have been viewed as pass interference. Their appeared to be a little contact, but it was nothing more than two players getting their feet tangled up, which is not a penalty. Secondly, the pass was nowhere near catchable. Setting aside the fact that David Thomas (the pass’ intended receiver) is about as athletic as a baby moose, the ball was thrown at least ten feet over his head and couldn’t possibly have been caught regardless of who the receiver was. The penalty set up New Orleans with 1^st and 10 at the Vikings 29 yard line and all but assured them of at least a good shot at a FG. Without this call, it’s still possible (maybe probable?) that the Saints get enough yards to set up Garrett Hartley for a game-winning kick anyway, but maybe the Vikes defense holds the Saints behind the 40 and forces a punt. We’ll never know. The most surprising missed call came late in the third quarter on the play that ended up being Favre’s first INT of the game. The Saints Bobby McCray hit Favre around the shins just as he was releasing the ball. A new rule and a point of emphasis for this season was that defenders are not to hit quarterbacks below the knee. This rule was implemented after Tom Brady’s season-ending knee injury that resulted from such a blow in the first game of the 2008 season. While the hit itself had nothing to do with the poor decision Favre made that led to the interception, it would have negated the play and set the Vikings up with 1^st down from the Saints 14 yard line and would have changed everything from that point on. I personally feel that the Saints’ defensive game plan was to hit Favre as many times as possible, regardless of whether some of those hits were illegal, and rough him up to the point that he would no longer be effective. While many other QBs would have submitted to these hits and left the game, Favre never missed a snap. What made this no-call even more curious was the questionable roughing the passer penalty levied against Anthony Hargrove for driving Favre into the ground earlier in the game. If referee Pete Morelli thought that hit was a penalty, then there is no reason McCray’s hit should have gone unnoticed.

Ultimately, I do not blame any of these calls for the outcome of the game. I’m sure someone with allegiances to the Saints could come up with a laundry list of calls that went against New Orleans of equal length to mine. The bottom line is that referees are a part of the game, and their job is very difficult. Having refereed high school football for seven years, I can attest to the fact that the game moves very quickly and that things happen that go unnoticed all the time. This isn’t an excuse for the refs blowing calls, but it does explain such calls to some degree. The Vikings laid their own bed in this one, and any blame being placed on the shoulders of the officials is unfair.

So if the referees aren’t at fault, then the question of who is to blame remains. The easy answer for Vikings fans this week has been head coach Brad Childress. There are a couple of arguments that keep coming up to support this viewpoint. One is that the Vikings were too conservative offensively once they got into field goal range at the end of regulation. I understand this argument to some extent, but ultimately don’t find it credible. The Vikings got the ball to the Saints 33 yard line, which would have set up a 50 or 51 yard field goal for the uber-reliable Ryan Longwell. While that kick would have been a bit longer than I’m sure he would like, it was very doable. The last thing the Vikings wanted to do in that situation was to take a sack or get a holding penalty while trying to get too cute on offense. They ran the ball with the sure-handed Chester Taylor on 1^st and 2^nd down, which is where the issues began for most people. I don’t have a problem with these play calls, because if Chester rips one of those carries for 6 yards, no one has any issues with them. The bigger problem is that they were unable to get any yards on those two runs, which set up a situation where they really had to pass the ball. After calling a timeout to set up the play, the Vikings then got stuck with too many men on the field, took a 5-yard penalty, and the rest is history.

The second case against Childress involves that 12 men penalty. Childress himself has taken responsibility for the mistake, claiming that the coaching staff was contemplating two different personnel groupings and caused the confusion that lead to the penalty. I have a harder time refuting this criticism than I did the play calling. In a situation like that, a coach should have a play in mind the night before that the team will run in case they need 5 yards to set up a FG. Whether it is a screen, rollout, draw, or whatever, it needs to be a decision that is already made. Things get tense at the end of games, and the last thing the players need to worry about in that spot is whether they should be on the field or not. I’m not a big believer in hindsight, mostly because it’s really easy to decide what someone should have done when we already know what didn’t work, but even if Childress had just decided to run into the line one more time, Longwell would have at least gotten that crack at a 50 yarder for the win. Instead, confusion set in and the situation was botched. The Vikings were actually lucky Favre wasn’t granted the timeout he was trying to call, as that would have resulted in a 15-yard penalty for calling consecutive timeouts. This exchange was a classic example of how the Vikings franchise continually manages to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Ultimately, I believe the culprit to blame for this soul-crushing loss is nothing more than circumstance itself. The Vikings fumbled six times, losing three of them. Fumbles are goofy things that seem to happen from time to time, but for a team as good as Minnesota to put the ball on the ground six times in one game is unheard of. They committed 5 turnovers during regulation. They lost a coin toss at the onset of overtime that led to them not getting a possession during the deciding period of their season. The Vikes special teams unit, which was one of the better groups during the regular season, gave up two big kickoff returns that led to 10 points for the Saints. There were a couple of times when Drew Brees passes ended up right in the hands of Vikings defenders, only to fall to the ground. When you add all these things together, it’s really amazing that the Vikings got this game to overtime in the first place. All of those statistical advantages I mentioned earlier were rendered moot by the scores of mistakes made by the normally even-keeled Vikings. In any other game, any one of those mistakes would likely have been enough to swing the tide in favor of New Orleans, but because of the Vikings’ dominance over the Saints on Sunday, the whole kit and caboodle was needed in order for the Saints to get the win. That’s what made this game so hard to accept, even a few days after the fact.

I made a joke to a friend of mine that dealing with this loss was like going through the different stages of grief one experiences after the death of a loved one. Over the last few days, I’ve been through the stages of denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and am now finally in full-on acceptance mode. Initially after the game, I feared that football had been ruined for me. I was so disappointed in what had transpired that I wasn’t sure I could ever care the same way ever again. With a few days now between me and the game to cushion the pain, I understand that this loss is not the end of the world. Next July, in the midst of summer, football season will begin anew. The Vikings will have a few new players to get excited about, possibly including a new starting quarterback, and the unfortunate end to this season will be a thing of the past. I will again allow myself to daydream about how great it would be to celebrate a Vikings’ Super Bowl victory. Until then, however, the winter will be long and cold, and the season will come all too slowly. When it does come, however, I will be ready to cheer with my whole heart for the Purple and Gold. I will be ready.

I just hope the Twins keep things interesting until then.

Game of the Weekend

The NFL Divisional Playoffs take place this weekend, and if you're a football fan, this means you're excited. This is easily the best round of the playoffs as we lose the pretenders that were weeded out in the Wild Card round (Cincy, NE and Philly) while at the same time getting back the cream of the crop in each league. The competitive balance is best in this round, and this weekend's slate of games is a great illustration of that.

I always find it fun when you have teams with contrasting styles, and in the Chargers/Jets game, this couldn't be truer. All the Jets want to do is run the ball. All the Chargers want to do is throw the ball down the field. In 2007, this game may have set a record for fewest passes thrown in a playoff game since the forward pass was invented. In 2010, the Chargers backfield sports some guy doing a poor impression of LaDainian Tomlinson and 5 foot 6 inch Darren Sproles. They will not be interested in trying to run much against a Jets defense that held people to 2.8 yards per carry during the regular season. This matchup is going to be like the US Army fighting the US Air Force. One side will try to grind their way to victory, while the other side will use flash and pizzazz en route to their desired outcome. Unfortunately for the Jets, they will not have the numbers advantage over the Chargers that the Army would have over the Air Force. None the less, this game should be very entertaining. It is not, however, the game of the week.

Baltimore/Indianapolis is another great example of a matchup between two teams who play with contrasting styles. As we saw last week, Baltimore is perfectly content to completely disregard the passing game and stick to the run, as they threw just 10 passes on their way to stomping Belichick's bunch. The Ravens play with a swagger and a confidence that is indicative of the type of on-field leadership players like Desmond Mason, Ed Reed, and Ray Lewis provide. On the flip side, Indianapolis is as business-like a team as you will ever see. Peyton Manning guides the offense like a ship captain. He's got his hand on the wheel and is in charge of every movement that takes place. Coach Jim Caldwell may or may not be conscious during games, but that seems not to matter. I'm pretty sure the Colts offensive line is allergic to run blocking, because only the Cardinals attempted fewer rushes than the Colts did this season. The Colts have been struggling since pulling their starters in the middle of Week 16 against the Jets, and the Ravens have been gaining steam in recent weeks. Despite these compelling reasons to watch this game, this is not the best game of the weekend.

Saints/Cardinals promises to be an offensive battle for the ages. According to ESPN's in-house gamblingologist (Yes, I made that word up...What of it?) Chad Millman, the 57 point over/under Vegas sports books have posted for this game is the highest in the playoffs in the 20 years records have been kept. When Kurt Warner has time to survey the field, the Arizona offense is virtually unstoppable. When Drew Brees has his full complement of weapons to work with, New Orleans is as difficult a team to defend as there is in the league. Despite Pierre Thomas' availability for the week being somewhat in question (evidenced by the emergency signing of Deuce McAllister on Friday), the Saints are very healthy and should be close to full speed for Saturday's game. Despite all the crazy offensive numbers we may see in this game and despite all of the amazing talent that will be on the field, this is not the game of the weekend.

Minnesota/Dallas has everything we could ever want in a playoff game. It's got the big personalities at QB in Brett Favre and Tony Romo. It's got game-breaking running backs in Adrian Peterson and Felix Jones. It's got young, up-and-coming receivers in the midst of breakout years in Sidney Rice and Miles Austin. It's got head coaches that raise the question of whether the huge amounts of talent each team has can overcome their buffoonery in Brad Childress and Wade Phillips. It's got dueling pass rushing units that make opposing QB's pray for an extra set of eyes coming out of the back of their head. In short, this game has a little bit of everything. What makes this a truly great match up is that these teams are so very similar to each other. Both defensive units were among the league's best. Both offenses rolled up yards and points at amazing rates. Both teams had lulls in during the regular season that caused people to question whether they are true title contenders or not. The main difference is that Dallas had their lull in November and have since recovered well enough to be considered the hottest team remaining in the playoffs, whereas the Vikings lull came in the season's final month, causing them to lose 3 of their last 5 games after an amazing 10-1 start to the year. There is little question that these are the two most complete teams remaining in the playoffs. Saints fans may argue that their bunch belongs in that argument, but in losing three straight to end the season, the flaws that most people quietly knew existed in the Saints reared their ugly heads. Minnesota and Dallas are not without flaws of their own. Minnesota had issues running the ball consistently toward the end of the season, and has given up a ton of yards to teams who employ a quick timing passing attack. Dallas has had significant trouble scoring points at times this year, putting up just 7 points in back to back games against Green Bay and Washington in the middle of November. The Cowboys have also been guilty of a few lapses in defensive play this season. This fact has been masked some by the good statistics their team accumulated over the course of the season, but those stats were boosted some by a few outstanding efforts against less than outstanding teams. A shutout of Washington in Week 16, back to back strong efforts against the Redskins and Raiders in November, and a nice game against a reeling Carolina team in Week 3 helped Dallas final defensive stats significantly. In the interest of full disclosure, however, the Cowboy's last two games against Philadelphia have to be viewed as nothing short of remarkable defensive efforts against a team that can really put the ball in the endzone. To allow just 2 TD's in 2 games to one of the better offenses in the NFL is an amazing achievement. Was it simply a case of one team having another team's number? Possibly. Regardless of that, the effort Dallas big D put gave over the last two weeks cannot be discounted. Ultimately, what this game is going to boil down to is big plays. Whichever team can make the most explosive plays is going to be the successful group. I just don't see this being a grind-it-out type of contest, so players like Felix Jones, Patrick Clayton, Percy Harvin, Adrian Peterson, and Bernard Berrian are going to have a lot of say over who wins this game. After the weekend is over, I believe this will be the game that people remember most fondly moving forward.

I do have opinions as to who is going to win these games. I will now share those opinions.

New Orleans vs. Arizona

The Cardinals won't be able to bring the same kind of effort and intensity after a short week of preparation they had a week ago against Green Bay, and the Saints will take advantage of this by getting ahead early and not letting go. Saints 34, Cardinals 21.

Indianapolis vs. Baltimore

The Colts will have trouble early as they kick off the rust after not having played meaningful football in 3 weeks, but will recover in time to put together a fourth quarter comeback against a rattled Joe Flacco. Colts 27, Ravens 24

Minnesota vs. Dallas

Brett Favre and Tony Romo go blow for blow in this game, each putting up huge games for their respective teams. In the end, this one is decided by who has the ball last, with that honor going to the Vikings in a thrilling early Sunday game. Vikings 38, Cowboys 31

San Diego v. New York

The Chargers superior talent level proves too much for the scrappy Jets to overcome, as the Chargers take off early and never slow down. Chargers 34, Jets 14.