The Lost Season

It's been almost a month since my last post, which I owe to the fact that I was studying for and subsequently taking the bar exam during that stretch of time. Now that the exam is behind me, I'll be bat at it on here two or three times a week. The 13 people who read this blog can thank me later. I know Tubby (pictured) looks happy.

Under Tubby Smith, the Minnesota Golden Gophers men’s basketball team has enjoyed quite a lot of success. In Tubby’s first season in Dinkytown, the Gophers won 20 games just one season removed from the schools most dismal season in recent memory. While the Gophers failed to make the NCAA Tournament, they certainly made big strides under Smith’s tutelage. Last year, Minnesota won 22 games en route to their first Tourney appearance since 2004-05, showing yet another sign of improving as a program. Understandably, coming into this year, there were a lot of expectations being placed on the team to continue this pattern of progress. Not only was the team returning every important player from last year’s Tournament squad (depending on how you feel about Jamal Abu-Shamala), but it was adding a highly-touted recruiting class that included California point guard Justin Cobbs, powerful junior college transfer Trevor Mbakwe, and one of the best recruits in the nation, Hopkins’ Royce White. White was considered by most pundits to be a top 5 recruit heading into the season, but more importantly, he was everything the Gophers lacked; someone who could create their own shot, someone who could turn a busted offensive possession into a basket, and someone that would have the Gophers leading SportsCenter with highlight reel plays on a regular basis. With the bulk and athleticism provided by Mbakwe and White and the backcourt depth added by Cobbs, the Gophers were sure to improve upon last year’s mark while hopefully challenging for a Big Ten Championship. Things were looking good for the Maroon and Gold, and the season had yet to even start. Unfortunately, things unraveled as quickly as they came together, causing the Gophers postseason candidacy to go from a sure thing to a long shot.

First, we learned that Trevor Mbakwe was going to be suspended for the foreseeable future in early November after being charged with assault in Dade County, Florida. What was expected to be a month-long suspension turned into a season-long ban, as Miami-Dade prosecutors bumble around with a dead-end case, perpetually pushing back court dates a case that seems to have little chance of being successful. Regardless of the potential fruitfulness of the county’s case against the Gopher forward, the arrest and subsequent investigation have stolen Mbakwe’s season, hurting Minnesota’s depth in the process. What makes Mbakwe’s suspension especially troublesome for the Gophers are reports out of Minnesota practices that Trevor has dominated both Colton Iverson and Ralph Sampson III during drills and scrimmages, leading Gopher Nation to believe that the inclusion of Mbakwe on this year’s squad could have lead to a few of the many close losses Minnesota has endured going the other way. Still, If the loss of Mbakwe was the Gopher’s only hurdle to clear this season, it’s possible they could have survived. Unfortunately, the loss of Mbakwe was only the beginning.

Just a couple of weeks after the Mbakwe suspension became official, we learned that not only was crown jewel recruit Royce White being charged with a number of offenses stemming from a shoplifting incident at a local store, but he was also a suspect in an on-campus laptop theft. White’s multiple alleged indiscretions led to a rollercoaster winter for the former Minnesota prep star. White eventually pled to a lesser charge in the shoplifting case while maintaining his innocence in the laptop caper. Rumors arose in early December that White would be leaving school despite his reportedly exemplary academic record. These rumors proved false for the time being, as not only did Royce remain in school, but rejoined the team for practices, as well. Things were going fine for White until it became clear that Minnesota Athletic Director Joel Maturi was not going to allow White to participate in any games until the issue regarding the laptop was completely resolved. White ultimately decided to leave to leave the University amid rumors that he may try his hand in Europe for the rest of the year before entering the NBA draft next summer. Even more rumors have his grandfather, Frank White, advising him and the University to get together to come to some arrangement that would allow Royce to rejoin the program for next season. One would hope that Royce would listen to Grandpa Frank, if this is indeed his advice, as going to the NBA now would, in my opinion, be a disastrous decision at this point in White’s career. Either way, Royce will not play one minute for the Gophers this year, meaning that the top two recruits of this nationally ranked class will not participate in any University of Minnesota games this season. That’s not exactly an ideal situation for a team hoping to take the next step towards becoming a national contender.

Even with White and Mbakwe being ineligible for the entire season, one recruit remained available to the Gophers. Point guard Justin Cobbs was highly regarded coming out of Torrence, California, and is projected to be a solid contributor for the Gophers down the road. The initial plan for Cobbs was to allow him to mature while backing up junior PG Al Nolen and keeping his minutes down. Unfortunately, that plan went by the wayside a few weeks ago when 18 games into the season Nolen was ruled academically ineligible for the rest of the season by the NCAA. Devoe Joseph has taken over the starting point guard duties in Nolan’s absence, but he’s not really a true PG. Cobbs is the only real PG on the roster, and as a result, his minutes have increased both in quantity and in importance. Against pressure defensive teams, Cobbs has been forced into duty in order to sure up the ball handling. Justin has played about as well as one could expect a freshman to play, but offensively, his ability to score the ball has yet to develop. The Gophers are a team without a real go-to scorer, and on such a team, the responsibility often falls on the PG to create some offense at the end of the shot clock. Cobbs has not proven to be capable of handling this task yet and as a result of this, the offense tends to get stagnant when he’s on the floor. Some of that offensive sluggishness may be a result of Cobbs getting most of his minutes with the less experienced second group, but none the less, there is a discernable difference between the team with Joseph or Nolan at the helm as opposed to when Cobbs has the reigns. Since Nolan was ruled in eligible, the Gophers are 5-6, with all eleven of the games being played within the conference. Prior to his departure, Minnesota appeared to be at least capable of making a run to the NCAA Tournament. But, now? Such a run seems more than a little unlikely as the Gophers, following an embarrassing loss to the hapless Michigan Wolverines, can only watch as their season spirals away from them.

Despite all of the personnel issues surrounding the squad, the story could have played out differently for the U of M. The Gophers have lost five of their twelve games this season by one point or in overtime. Two of those games have come against conference front-runners Michigan State and Purdue. A win against either of those squads would have represented a victory that could have propelled the Gophers into the postseason. With their only good wins comings against Ohio State early in the Big Ten season and Wisconsin late in the season, there are way too many fluff teams comprising the rest of the team’s wins. The Gophers are going to finish the season in Big Ten no-man’s-land. The top five teams in the conference have identified themselves as being Purdue, MSU, Wisconsin, OSU, and Illinois, in no specific order. The bottom five have equally identified themselves as being Penn State, Iowa, Indiana, Northwestern, and Michigan. Minnesota is currently smack dab in the middle of these two groups. Wins against top half teams Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Illinois (in Champaign), as well as close losses against Michigan State (both at home and on the road) and Purdue, have displayed the team’s ability to play with the upper-echelon teams in the conference. At the same time, losses to Indiana, Northwestern and Michigan (twice), along with uncomfortably close wins against Northwestern and Penn State have shown a propensity to play down to the level of inferior opponents. After everything is considered, it’s pretty clear that Minnesota belongs right where it is within the conference. Some years, being the sixth best team in the Big Ten has been enough to get a team into the tournament, but in this new era of college basketball, where mid-major programs get enough overflow talent from the big schools to compete on a national level, those days are quickly coming to a close.

(This theory of newfound parity, of course, excludes the Big East, which we are all lead to believe by the national media is the be-all, end-all of college basketball. The worst team in the Big East is better than the best team anywhere else. I’m sure this perception I’ve got from watching ESPN’s experts analyze the sport has nothing to do with the fact that ESPN’s main campus falls directly in the middle of Big East territory. Did I lay that on thick enough? OK, then…moving on.)

Short of a miraculous run in the Big Ten Tournament that gives the Gophers an automatic bid to the Big Dance, the Gophers’ season will end with an appearance in the NIT, which might as well be an acronym for “non-ideal turnout.” With 17 wins, Tubby’s streak of consecutive seasons with 20 victories is in serious jeopardy, with the team probably needing at least one win in the NIT to reach the mark. A win in the conference finale against Iowa would give Minnesota a .500 season in conference, which is always better than being sub-.500, but ultimately, it won’t be enough to get this team where it needs to go.

So what does all of this mean? Should Tubby be fired for his indescresions? Of course not. Tubby Smith has taken a floundering program and turned it into a competitive one, at the very least. If Royce White, Trevor Mbakwe, and Al Nolen can all return to the team next year, the losses of senior leaders Lawrence Westbrook and Damien Johnson won’t sting quite as much. With signed recruits Austin Hollins (son of former NBA player and current Memphis Grizzlies head coach Lionel Hollins) and Elliott Eliason, as well as the potential signing of Devoe Joseph’s brother, Corey, there is a lot to be optimistic about regarding the future of this program.

Minnesota sports fans are used to repeating the “maybe next year” mantra. Unless the Tubby Smith and the Gophers can perform a miracle in Indianapolis in two weeks, it appears as though we’ll all be repeating that familiar phrase one more time.

The Crack of the Bat

With pitchers and catchers reporting in a mere two and a half weeks, I’ve been getting that familiar itch recently. With the Vikings season over, the Gophers hoops squad mired in annoying mediocrity, and the Timberwolves an afterthought, at best (Wolves! Mavericks! 7:30pm Friday on Ch. 45! Catch the Fever!), the Twins are suddenly the most appetizing sports discussion option in Minnesota.

Many Twins fans have been left with bittersweet memories of the 2009 season. If the high point of the year was the Twins play-in game victory against the Tigers that sent the squad to the playoffs, then the low point was probably the Game 2 loss to the New York Yankees in the American League Divisional Series. In a strange twist of fate, I really didn’t see either of those games. I was at a dinner that my dad was being honored at during the game against Detroit and only saw the first 7 or so innings. Needless to say, I missed the good part. During the second game of the Yanks series I was refereeing a high school football game and turned on the radio in the car just in time to hear the blown call on Mauer’s shot down the line. About two minutes later, Mark Teixeira hit a walk-off homerun, and just like that, all the good vibes from the win over Detroit were all but gone. The Yanks finished off the Twins in Game 3, and the season was over.

Still, despite the disappointing finish to the year, just getting to the playoffs felt like stealing. When Justin Morneau was ruled out for the season at the beginning of September, most assumed the Twins’ chances for a comeback were over. However, even without the former MVP, the Twins went on a 17-4 run to end the season in order to catch up to Detroit, and then passed them in that final game. All in all, the 2009 season has to be viewed as a success. In the second year PS (Post Santana), the Twins not only reached the playoffs, but won the division. Joe Mauer won his third batting championship in four years and his first MVP award. Denard Span and Jason Kubel each had breakout-type seasons and solidified themselves as everyday players. With seven of the nine spots in the lineup pretty-well taken care of and a myriad of pitching options at the Twins disposal, I think it’s safe to say that there are fewer questions surrounding the Twins than at any time in recent memory. Nonetheless, there are a few unsolved mysteries left to discuss regarding the 2010 Minnesota Twins. Here are the big three.

1. How is the second/third base situation going to shake out?

(Update: I wrote this section Thursday night before news of the Hudson signing was announced. Call me Nostradamus. Either way, second base is no longer an issue, but the third base question remains.)

If the season were to start today, right now, immediately, I think we’d see some amalgamation of Matt Tolbert, Nick Punto, Alexi Casilla, and Brendan Harris at these two spots. The likely candidates to be the “regular” starters would be Punto at second and Harris at third, with Tolbert playing the role of uber-utility guy. Casilla, in this alignment, would likely find himself back playing in Rochester for the AAA affiliate. However, the season does not begin today, and there is scuttlebutt surrounding the Twins being close to an agreement with former Blue Jay/Diamondback/Dodger second baseman Orlando “O-Dog” Hudson. Hudson has been a very productive offensive player who makes solid contact, has a pretty good eye, and possesses a modicum of power. Aside from his offense, Hudson has won four Gold Gloves over the past five years, including one last season for the Dodgers, when he committed just 8 errors in 692 total chances. Despite his undeniable upside as a player, Hudson does come with a few bugs included. Last season, he started 143 games at second base for the Dodgers before losing his job at the end of the season and spending most of LA’s playoff run planted firmly on the bench. While his lack of offense and replacement Ronnie Belliard’s hot streak down the stretch were certainly contributing factors to Hudson’s demotion, there were grumblings from Dodger’s camp all year that suggested he may not be the best teammate, but these rumors are largely unsubstantiated. Ultimately, the Twins would do very well to shore up second base by bringing in Hudson. Eliminating one of the two infield holes would allow Gardy to rotate Harris and Punto in at third, with whichever one isn’t in the lineup acting as the backup at all three infield spots. I think any hope of signing a decent third baseman is all but gone, meaning that the position will have to be filled with in-house options. Eventually, the job seems to belong to minor league prospect Danny Valencia, but with Valencia not receiving an end-of-the-year call up last season, it seems unlikely that he would hold the job coming out of spring training. The Twins are notorious for delaying the arbitration/free agency clock on minor leaguers if at all possible, so expect Valencia to start the year in AAA, but don’t be surprised if he’s the Twins regular at the hot corner by the All Star break. Short of Hudson being brought aboard, it would appear that both of these positions will be somewhat up for grabs during Spring Training. I’m sure Gardy would love to see someone like Valencia or Casilla show up and really win one of the jobs, but with Valencia being so inexperienced and with Casilla being, well, Casilla, those possibilities seem slim. There is no shortage of options for the Twins at those two spots, but I think it’s safe to say that none of the in-house options are all that palatable to the fans.

Predicted Outcome: Twins sign Hudson, he plays second base with Harris and Punto splitting AB’s at 3rd. (Seriously…this was written prior to the signing. You believe me, right?)

2. What is the starting rotation going to look like?

The good news for the Twins starting pitching prospects is that the team has a number of very solid options who are difficult to distinguish between. The bad news for the Twins’ starting pitching prospects is that the team has a number of very solid options who are difficult to distinguish between. Gone are the days of Johan Santana and Brad Radke leading the rotation with guaranteed quality start after guaranteed quality start. Things are a little more amorphous now, as the pecking order within the rotation seemed to change weekly during last season. The current suspects to be in the rotation on Opening Day are Scott Baker, Carl Pavano, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, Francisco Liriano, Glen Perkins, and Brian Duensing, with Anthony Swarzak being a potential dark horse. There have been rumors that the Twins offered Wisconsin-native Jarrod Washburn a 1 year, $5 million deal, but that was before Pavano accepted the Twins’ offer of arbitration and was kept on-board. My guess is that Pavano staying means that the Twins interest in Washburn is, at best, limited. I will be working under the assumption that Washburn will not be a Twin in 2010. The seemingly sure things to be included in the starting five are Baker, Pavano, and Blackburn. Those three guys did enough to prove their value last year that they likely aren’t going to have to consider Spring Training as anything more than prep for the regular season. That means that there are six pitchers vying for 2 spots in the rotation. Kevin Slowey could easily be added to the list of sure things, but given the fact his season ended due to a wrist injury, I think it’s safer to avoid assuming we know what the Twins will get from him early in the season. All reports have him bouncing back from the surgery nicely, but he may need a little extra time at the season’s onset before being ready to take his spot in the rotation. However, if Slowey comes back anywhere near full strength, then there is really only one spot left for Swarzak and the three lefties to battle for. Swarzak had a few nice outings for the Twins last year, but his inconsistency eventually led to him being sent back to the minors. He is likely still a year or so away from being a reliable option, and thus is not a likely candidate for the final spot in the rotation. However, if a couple of the lefties fall on their faces in spring and Swarzak pitches lights out, Gardy may decide to give him a chance at the beginning of the year. Swarzak has good stuff and a high ceiling, but as we saw a year ago, he’s still a bit raw and has trouble throwing strikes consistently. That’s a real no-no for the Twins and will probably be the reason he starts 2010 in the minors. This leaves Duensing, Perkins, and Liriano as the likely candidates to fill the 5th spot. There is little question whom the Twins coaching staff would like to see earn that final spot. While all three of these pitchers have proven to be capable of pitching at a high level in the majors, Francisco Liriano has, by far, the most upside of the trio. Liriano was well on his way to a Rookie of the Year award in 2006 and possibly a Cy Young before a torn ligament in his elbow derailed his once bright future. Liriano showed some flashes of his hold stuff last year, but was largely a disappointment. Despite his struggles in the majors, Liriano has pitched exceptionally well in the very competitive Dominican Winter League, with his performance culminating in a dominating 5 inning, 1 hit, 0 run, 10 K game in the championship game that his team won. If Liriano comes back anywhere close to his 2006 pre-injury form, the rest of the American League is going to have to deal with Johan Santana 2.0. If he can’t make the return, it would seem the bullpen might still be a viable option for him, which would give Perkins or Duensing a shot at the rotation. Perkins is a guy who could well be traded before the beginning of the season. It’s possible that Perk would have already been dealt, but teams that might be interested may still have concerns over his oft-injured shoulder and would like to see him throw in spring before committing to any deal for the Stillwater, MN native. Perkins has had issues on and off the field. He has mixed up a few brilliant starts at the Major League level with a few really bad ones. The problem with evaluating these starts is that no one seems to be sure when Perkins is healthy and when he is not. He pitched at least part of last season while dealing with an undisclosed shoulder injury that ultimately ended his season. When the Twins declined to add him to the major league roster upon his return from injury, instead optioning him to AAA, Perkins handled the situation like a true professional by filing a grievance with the union against the team. The grievance was dealt with privately, but it would not be surprising if bad blood still existed on each side. Regardless of this incident, Duensing was very sharp at the end of the season and likely had moved ahead of Perkins based on performance alone. Duensing pitched admirably in a tough spot against the Yankees in the playoffs and showed that he could be relied upon in big games. All of these guys seem to have a claim to that 5th and final spot in the rotation, but only one will be able to claim it.

Prediction: Pavano, Baker, Blackburn, Slowey, and Liriano get the starting nod, Duensing pitches out of the ‘pen, Swarzak goes to AAA, and Perkins is either traded or optioned to the minors.

3. How will the Twins manage the at-bats of Delmon Young, Jason Kubel, and Jim Thome?

The addition of Thome to the roster answered the question of who the big bat on the bench will be in 2010, but created a question as to how Thome will ultimately be used. In a perfect world, Gardy would love to write Delmon and Kubel into the lineup at LF and DH 150 times this year. They are each young players with a lot of ability, but each has their weaknesses. Kubel has had his issues against LH pitching throughout his career. Last season, Kubel had an amazing .300/.369/.540 line overall, but hit just .243/.299/.345 against lefties. (For those of you not in the know, those numbers I just used stand for a player’s batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. If you don’t know what those three things calculate, I can’t help you.) Regardless of the configuration of the lineup, Kubel is likely going to have to play against lefties, meaning that he’ll have to improve or risk losing AB’s to Brendan Harris. Brendan might be a nice guy, but I don’t think it would do much for Kubel’s self-esteem to lose playing time to him. Thome didn’t fare much better against lefties last year, going .209/.314/.429. The best bet against lefties would seem to be to leave Delmon in leftfield and hope that Kubel turns it around against southpaws. Jason still has only logged about 400 at bats against lefties in the major leagues, and former Twins manager Tom Kelly has always said that you need to have a sample size of 1000 at bats before you really know what a player is, so there is the potential for improvement there. The real conundrum comes when the Twins face tough RH starting pitchers. Delmon Young has been quite the enigma for the Twins over the past two seasons. Last year, for example, he managed to hit under .250 in both April and May and hit just three homeruns prior to August 1st. From August 1 to the end of the season, however, Delmon hit over .300, cracked 9 HR’s, and saw his on-base % increase dramatically. This begs the question heading into this season of which Delmon are we going to get? Will we get the guy resembling a big kid who hasn’t figured out how to manage his suddenly massive body, or will we get the guy who can knock a ball as far as anybody on the team and be a real menace at the bottom of the order? If we get more of the former than the latter, expect to see Thome DH against righties with Kubel playing left field and “Del-Money” riding the bench.

Prediction: Thome is used largely as a spot starter at DH and pinch hitter, ends up with about 200 AB’s, while Delmon breaks through and Kubel continues to hit like he did a year ago.

There is a lot to like about this season’s incarnation of the Minnesota Twins. With Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, Kubel, and Span, there is a lot of top-end talent to be excited about. With the potential addition of Orlando Hudson and the already completed additions of shortstop JJ Hardy and DH Jim Thome, there are plenty of new-comers to get to know as the season moves along. With the late-season addition of Jon Rausch last year and the potential return of side-slinging Minnesotan Pat Neshek to the back-end of the bullpen, the relief unit has the potential to be much improved over where it began last year. Gone are the likes of Sean Henn and Bobby Keppel, hopefully gone are the 6 run innings against the bullpen that happened a little too frequently in 2009. With the Twins having resolved most of their issues prior to Spring Training, I’m looking forward to the start of the season as much as I have in a long time.

Season Prediction: Yeah, right. I’m not ready yet. I’ll do this after Spring Training.

The Agony of Defeat

This was an article that probably should have been written earlier in the week, but I just couldn’t bring myself to do it. Even though I’m 26 years old, I still live and die with my Minnesota teams, and without a doubt, I am connected strongest to the Vikings. Football lends itself to an emotional attachment between the teams and their fans, and I have certainly fallen victim to the dark side of that relationship on a few occasions. Three times in my life the Vikings have lost games that absolutely ripped my heart out, with each loss having its own gut-wrenching dynamic.

In 1999, The Game Who’s Name We Shall Not Speak still makes me shudders when I think about it. The NFL Network played a replay of that game last year, and I thought about watching it, but just couldn’t bring myself to do it. Even 10 years later, the wounds were still too fresh. What made this one sting so much was that the Vikings were clearly the best team in the NFC all year, going 15-1 during the regular season, with their lone loss coming in a close game in Tampa Bay. With an offense that consisted of rookie Randy Moss, Cris Carter, Jake Reed, Robert Smith, a rejuvenated Randall Cunningham, and one of the best o-lines ever constructed, the Vikings set an NFL record for points scored in a season. Even in The Game Who’s Name We Shall Not Speak, the Vikes were in control of things the entire time. Gary Anderson, who became the first kicker in NFL history to go through an entire NFL season without missing an extra point or field goal, hooked a 39 yard kick late in the 4^th quarter that would have sealed the deal. All in all, this is the toughest loss I’ve ever had to endure as a sports fan. I was just 15 years old when the game was played, and was simply ill-equipped to deal with such a blow.

In 2003, the second “Heartbreak Hotel” game of my Vikings fandom occurred in Arizona, when a last second TD by the Cardinals knocked the Vikings out of the playoffs. What makes this game hurt still today is that the final score would not count under the NFL’s current rules regarding receivers being forced out of bounds. Cardinals’ receiver Nate Poole was ruled to have been pushed out of bounds prior to landing with the ball, which at the time constituted a complete pass. The force out rule was abolished a couple of years ago. This falls below The Game Who’s Name We Shall Not Speak on the “agony meter” because the Vikings were not a great team that year and likely would have been an easy out in the playoffs. Still, it really sucked. I was catatonic for a good hour after that one.

The third game, and the potential leader in the clubhouse as most painful Vikings losses of my life, happened on Sunday in New Orleans. It’s still too soon to evaluate the historical significance of this loss, but my gut tells me that I won’t be forgetting this game for quite some time. The Vikes and Saints were both coming off of blowout wins in the Divisional Playoff round, with the Vikings beating a Cowboys team that had defeated the Saints in New Orleans late in the regular season. The Saints were coming off of an equally impressive victory over a Cardinals club that had destroyed the Vikings in Arizona just a few weeks earlier. Each team had prolific offenses with playmakers at every position. Drew Brees was the NFL’s highest rated passer during the regular season. Brett Favre was the second rated passer. The Vikings defense had its issues stopping teams with quick-strike passing attacks, which was the exact style the Saints had employed all season. The Saints had their problems with teams who like to run the ball between the tackles, and with Adrian Peterson lining up behind the quarterback for the Vikes, they were certainly capable of exploiting this weakness. Every stat, trend, and matchup pointed to this game being an epic battle between two evenly matched opponents that could go down in the books as one of the best NFC Championship games ever. While the two teams proved to not be as evenly matched as most people thought, the game was certainly an instant classic…if you’re a Saints fan. I am not a Saints fan. This game sucked.

(Disclaimer: The following argument is not in any way meant to discredit the effort the Saints gave on Sunday. They played hard, if not well, and in the end probably deserved to win that game despite all that I’m about to discuss. I’m happy for the people of New Orleans, who needed this win as much as any fan base has needed any win, but that doesn’t mean I have to like it. So there.)

While most of the so-called pundits proclaimed during the week leading up to the game that the Saints were the better team and that the Vikings would need to play a perfect game to beat them, I felt this viewpoint to be erroneous. I had seen enough of each of these squads to form the opinion that, all in all, the Vikings had more talent and that it was the Saints who would have to play up to their level. While a lot of people were making a big deal about the noise of the Superdome being a big issue for Minnesota, the truth of the matter is that such trivialities mean very little in games of such magnitude. It’s not as if the Vikings were going to show up for the game, hear the crowd noise, and get intimidated and decide to go home. Crowd noise is typically only an issue for the first couple of drives in a game, if that. In this case, the Viking went down the field and scored a TD on their first possession, indicating that the noise was not going to be a problem. My pre-game analysis was that if the Vikings played to their potential, there was nothing the Saints would be able to do to overcome the gap in ability on the field. It turns out that I may have been right. Unfortunately, none of that mattered.

The Vikings dominated the Saints on Sunday. I repeat: The Vikings DOMINATED the Saints on Sunday. They outgained the Saints by over 200 yards, becoming the first team to do this and lose an NFL playoff game in the history of the NFL playoffs. Brett Favre, despite getting the ever-living snot knocked out of him, played well enough to win that football game. His interception at the end of regulation was devastating, but as I will illustrate, he shouldn’t have been in a situation where he had to make a play at the end of the game for the Vikings to win. Adrian Peterson ran with authority and was as good as he had been all season. Defensively, the Vikings slowed the Saints running game and kept enough pressure on Brees to make him uncomfortable in the pocket and force some uncharacteristically errant throws from the 2009 MVP runner-up. The Saints had seven drives that were 3-and-outs and only had two drives that lasted more than 4 plays during regulation (their first two TD drives). The Saints never had a possession last longer than 3:05 until their overtime drive, which lasted 4:45. The Saints never gained more than 9 yards on any drive that didn’t result in points. They averaged more than 4 yards per play on just three of their 14 possessions. Cumulatively, these stats display just how dominating the Vikes were defensively throughout the game. If you had told me before the game that all the previous occurrences would take place, I would have said that the Vikings probably won going away. However, numerous mistakes by the offense and a little help in some key spots from the refs made sure that wasn’t the case.

I’m not going to blame the referees for this loss. It would be really easy to do so, but I’m not going to stoop to that level. I will, however, discuss the three calls that truly changed the course of this game. The three game changers (in chronological order) were the no-call on Bobby McCray’s low hit on Favre, the replay “confirmation” of Pierre Thomas’ first down run in overtime, and the pass interference penalty on Ben Leber that set up the game winning FG for the Saints. The most important of these was the call on 4^th and 1 that gave the Saints that all-important first down in OT. Initially, it seemed as though Thomas clearly reached the line-to-gain and had the first down. Upon further review, it was evident that Chad Greenway’s helmet knocked the ball loose from Thomas’ grip and that by the time he regained possession he had been pushed back behind the first down line. In my admittedly biased view, it was clear that after fumbling and recovering the ball, Thomas was nowhere near the first down anymore. I was in complete shock that the call was not overturned. Had it been, it is likely that the Vikings would have been able to get the 30 or so yards they needed to get into field goal range and would have at least had a chance to win the game. The least important was probably the PI on Leber, although it may have been the most egregious call of the three. First of all, I’m not sure there was ever any contact that should have been viewed as pass interference. Their appeared to be a little contact, but it was nothing more than two players getting their feet tangled up, which is not a penalty. Secondly, the pass was nowhere near catchable. Setting aside the fact that David Thomas (the pass’ intended receiver) is about as athletic as a baby moose, the ball was thrown at least ten feet over his head and couldn’t possibly have been caught regardless of who the receiver was. The penalty set up New Orleans with 1^st and 10 at the Vikings 29 yard line and all but assured them of at least a good shot at a FG. Without this call, it’s still possible (maybe probable?) that the Saints get enough yards to set up Garrett Hartley for a game-winning kick anyway, but maybe the Vikes defense holds the Saints behind the 40 and forces a punt. We’ll never know. The most surprising missed call came late in the third quarter on the play that ended up being Favre’s first INT of the game. The Saints Bobby McCray hit Favre around the shins just as he was releasing the ball. A new rule and a point of emphasis for this season was that defenders are not to hit quarterbacks below the knee. This rule was implemented after Tom Brady’s season-ending knee injury that resulted from such a blow in the first game of the 2008 season. While the hit itself had nothing to do with the poor decision Favre made that led to the interception, it would have negated the play and set the Vikings up with 1^st down from the Saints 14 yard line and would have changed everything from that point on. I personally feel that the Saints’ defensive game plan was to hit Favre as many times as possible, regardless of whether some of those hits were illegal, and rough him up to the point that he would no longer be effective. While many other QBs would have submitted to these hits and left the game, Favre never missed a snap. What made this no-call even more curious was the questionable roughing the passer penalty levied against Anthony Hargrove for driving Favre into the ground earlier in the game. If referee Pete Morelli thought that hit was a penalty, then there is no reason McCray’s hit should have gone unnoticed.

Ultimately, I do not blame any of these calls for the outcome of the game. I’m sure someone with allegiances to the Saints could come up with a laundry list of calls that went against New Orleans of equal length to mine. The bottom line is that referees are a part of the game, and their job is very difficult. Having refereed high school football for seven years, I can attest to the fact that the game moves very quickly and that things happen that go unnoticed all the time. This isn’t an excuse for the refs blowing calls, but it does explain such calls to some degree. The Vikings laid their own bed in this one, and any blame being placed on the shoulders of the officials is unfair.

So if the referees aren’t at fault, then the question of who is to blame remains. The easy answer for Vikings fans this week has been head coach Brad Childress. There are a couple of arguments that keep coming up to support this viewpoint. One is that the Vikings were too conservative offensively once they got into field goal range at the end of regulation. I understand this argument to some extent, but ultimately don’t find it credible. The Vikings got the ball to the Saints 33 yard line, which would have set up a 50 or 51 yard field goal for the uber-reliable Ryan Longwell. While that kick would have been a bit longer than I’m sure he would like, it was very doable. The last thing the Vikings wanted to do in that situation was to take a sack or get a holding penalty while trying to get too cute on offense. They ran the ball with the sure-handed Chester Taylor on 1^st and 2^nd down, which is where the issues began for most people. I don’t have a problem with these play calls, because if Chester rips one of those carries for 6 yards, no one has any issues with them. The bigger problem is that they were unable to get any yards on those two runs, which set up a situation where they really had to pass the ball. After calling a timeout to set up the play, the Vikings then got stuck with too many men on the field, took a 5-yard penalty, and the rest is history.

The second case against Childress involves that 12 men penalty. Childress himself has taken responsibility for the mistake, claiming that the coaching staff was contemplating two different personnel groupings and caused the confusion that lead to the penalty. I have a harder time refuting this criticism than I did the play calling. In a situation like that, a coach should have a play in mind the night before that the team will run in case they need 5 yards to set up a FG. Whether it is a screen, rollout, draw, or whatever, it needs to be a decision that is already made. Things get tense at the end of games, and the last thing the players need to worry about in that spot is whether they should be on the field or not. I’m not a big believer in hindsight, mostly because it’s really easy to decide what someone should have done when we already know what didn’t work, but even if Childress had just decided to run into the line one more time, Longwell would have at least gotten that crack at a 50 yarder for the win. Instead, confusion set in and the situation was botched. The Vikings were actually lucky Favre wasn’t granted the timeout he was trying to call, as that would have resulted in a 15-yard penalty for calling consecutive timeouts. This exchange was a classic example of how the Vikings franchise continually manages to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Ultimately, I believe the culprit to blame for this soul-crushing loss is nothing more than circumstance itself. The Vikings fumbled six times, losing three of them. Fumbles are goofy things that seem to happen from time to time, but for a team as good as Minnesota to put the ball on the ground six times in one game is unheard of. They committed 5 turnovers during regulation. They lost a coin toss at the onset of overtime that led to them not getting a possession during the deciding period of their season. The Vikes special teams unit, which was one of the better groups during the regular season, gave up two big kickoff returns that led to 10 points for the Saints. There were a couple of times when Drew Brees passes ended up right in the hands of Vikings defenders, only to fall to the ground. When you add all these things together, it’s really amazing that the Vikings got this game to overtime in the first place. All of those statistical advantages I mentioned earlier were rendered moot by the scores of mistakes made by the normally even-keeled Vikings. In any other game, any one of those mistakes would likely have been enough to swing the tide in favor of New Orleans, but because of the Vikings’ dominance over the Saints on Sunday, the whole kit and caboodle was needed in order for the Saints to get the win. That’s what made this game so hard to accept, even a few days after the fact.

I made a joke to a friend of mine that dealing with this loss was like going through the different stages of grief one experiences after the death of a loved one. Over the last few days, I’ve been through the stages of denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and am now finally in full-on acceptance mode. Initially after the game, I feared that football had been ruined for me. I was so disappointed in what had transpired that I wasn’t sure I could ever care the same way ever again. With a few days now between me and the game to cushion the pain, I understand that this loss is not the end of the world. Next July, in the midst of summer, football season will begin anew. The Vikings will have a few new players to get excited about, possibly including a new starting quarterback, and the unfortunate end to this season will be a thing of the past. I will again allow myself to daydream about how great it would be to celebrate a Vikings’ Super Bowl victory. Until then, however, the winter will be long and cold, and the season will come all too slowly. When it does come, however, I will be ready to cheer with my whole heart for the Purple and Gold. I will be ready.

I just hope the Twins keep things interesting until then.

Joe Buck is Ruining Football

I enjoy life’s simple pleasures; things like a good sandwich, a cold beer, and a Sunday without hearing Joe Buck’s voice. While the first two pleasures are always in play, Vikings fans will have to live without the third two weeks in a row. Somehow, despite a clear public sentiment against Mr. Buck, he and the eternally-concussed Troy Aikman remain FOX’s #1 football commentating crew. While Aikman is never going to be confused for a young John Madden in the booth, I really have no problem with the work he does. Even though there are a couple of moments in each game where Troy seems to lose his train of thought and starts repeating the same thing over and over again for 30 seconds, he is pretty much what a color-commentator is supposed to be. Aikman does a good job of offering up the kind of information that can really only come from someone who’s played the game at the highest level. While I believe there are better color guys in football (Cris Collinsworth, Ron Jaworski, and Jon Gruden, to name a few), Aikman does just fine. Buck, on the other hand, is a different story.

My distain for Joe Buck started to take shape near the end of the Vikings/Packers playoff game at Lambeau Field in 2005. After Randy Moss caught his second TD to pretty much put the game away, he infamously pretended to “moon” the crowd. I repeat: Moss pretended to moon the crowd. Joe Buck couldn’t have been more outraged. You can watch his reaction to the act here. I found Buck’s reaction to be over-the-top, to say the least. With all the horrors in our world, a wide receiver pretending to pull his pants down (the act was in homage to a regular post-game antic of Packer fans when the visiting team’s bus was leaving the complex) is what gets Buck’s panties all in a bunch? Please. With this seemingly insignificant moment in a Wild Card playoff game, Buck became persona non grata to me forever. The ensuing years have only done more to fuel my dislike for him, both as a commentator and as a person.

Strike two against Buck occurred last June when Buck’s HBO variety show (deftly titled “Joe Buck Live”) invited the raunchy comedian Artie Lange to be a guest on the debut episode. If you are unfamiliar with Lange’s work, he is the most degenerate member of the Howard Stern crew, which is really saying something. He is also the star of the straight-to-DVD classic “Beer League.” Since Buck and his show crew were well aware of Lange’s comedic styling, they should have expected nothing less than a controversial appearance. Ultimately, that is exactly what “Joe Buck Live” got from Artie, as you can see for yourself here. Afterward, Buck and HBO each acted as though they were completely shocked that Artie Lange, of all people, would act in a less than savory manner. The outrage shown by Buck and the network was ridiculous because they knew exactly what Lange was going to do. I believe that Buck and HBO had planned that Lange would do something so crazy that it would create instant buzz for the show, while at the same time providing Buck an opportunity to hop back up on his soap box and condemn this “outlandish” behavior. Lange even goes as far as saying that “JBL” producers instructed him to “go nuts” if fellow guests Paul Rudd and Jason Sudeikis got boring. Lange was subsequently banned from appearing on any future HBO Sports productions. The entire charade stinks of a set-up to me, which leads me to believe that Buck is nothing more than a fake wannabe media mogul .

I was able to avoid watching Buck for a good chunk of the 2009-10 season. With my Vikings typically playing the noon game on FOX, if I was going to be subjected to Buck and Aikman, it was going to be during a random late afternoon game. The 3pm games typically only interest me if I have fantasy football players in it, so I tend to only “half” pay attention to them. Last week, however, I was subjected to a solid 3-hour block of Buck and Aikman as the Vikes took on the Cowboys. For someone who gets paid to watch and describe football action, Buck always seems like he has something better he could be doing during the game. His level of excitement typically falls somewhere between a six year old child before a dentist visit and a dog right before a bath. Buck had the opportunity to call one of the great plays in NFL history when the Giants’ WR David Tyree came down with an unbelievable catch on 4th down during what proved to be the game-winning drive for the G-Men in Super Bowl XLII. Here is what the ever-creative Buck did with that call. Feel the excitement, folks. During last Sunday’s Vikings/Cowboys game, Buck put up another great performance. As the game dragged on and the Vikings gained a firm grip on things, Buck became noticeably disinterested in the game. Aikman reacted similarly towards the end of the game, but being that Troy won three Super Bowls with the Cowboys, his displeasure with the outcome of this game was understandable. I believe FOX did Aikman a great disservice by putting him in a situation where he had to call that game by placing him squarely between a rock and a hard place. Aikman is naturally going to have a hard time being unbiased while working a game involving his former team. Buck, on the other hand, has no such allegiances to either squad and therefore should have been able to remain on his game throughout the contest. Instead, he was so out of it by the end of the game that he missed a golden opportunity to rant and rave about the Vikings running up the score on Dallas when Favre threw the TD to Shiancoe with under two minutes left. This was very out of character for Buck and in my view proved that he wasn’t really paying attention anymore. Luckily, the game ended, and my day with Buck did, as well.

Unfortunately, Buck and Aikman will be back on the job at the Superdome on Sunday when the Vikings travel south to play the Saints. While Aikman’s conflict of interest will no longer be an issue, Buck’s ineptitude will. I would say that I am hoping for a close game that will hold JB’s interest throughout, but I’m not sure that will be enough for him. Thankfully for all us football fans, Sunday’s game will be Buck’s last of the season. FOX doesn’t have the Super Bowl this year, so the NFL’s biggest game of the year will not be an embarrassment of commentating like it was two years ago. Just as fortunately, Buck can only ruin one game per week, leaving us with 15 others watchable games during the regular season.

My advice to all of you looking for a way to lessen the effect of Buck on Sunday is to enjoy the hell out of Jim Nance during the early game. Nance may tell stories about how Mark Sanchez sat in the crowd at a football game once, and he may be dull enough to act as a stand-in for Ritalin, but for this week, he’s all we’ve got.

Game of the Weekend

The NFL Divisional Playoffs take place this weekend, and if you're a football fan, this means you're excited. This is easily the best round of the playoffs as we lose the pretenders that were weeded out in the Wild Card round (Cincy, NE and Philly) while at the same time getting back the cream of the crop in each league. The competitive balance is best in this round, and this weekend's slate of games is a great illustration of that.

I always find it fun when you have teams with contrasting styles, and in the Chargers/Jets game, this couldn't be truer. All the Jets want to do is run the ball. All the Chargers want to do is throw the ball down the field. In 2007, this game may have set a record for fewest passes thrown in a playoff game since the forward pass was invented. In 2010, the Chargers backfield sports some guy doing a poor impression of LaDainian Tomlinson and 5 foot 6 inch Darren Sproles. They will not be interested in trying to run much against a Jets defense that held people to 2.8 yards per carry during the regular season. This matchup is going to be like the US Army fighting the US Air Force. One side will try to grind their way to victory, while the other side will use flash and pizzazz en route to their desired outcome. Unfortunately for the Jets, they will not have the numbers advantage over the Chargers that the Army would have over the Air Force. None the less, this game should be very entertaining. It is not, however, the game of the week.

Baltimore/Indianapolis is another great example of a matchup between two teams who play with contrasting styles. As we saw last week, Baltimore is perfectly content to completely disregard the passing game and stick to the run, as they threw just 10 passes on their way to stomping Belichick's bunch. The Ravens play with a swagger and a confidence that is indicative of the type of on-field leadership players like Desmond Mason, Ed Reed, and Ray Lewis provide. On the flip side, Indianapolis is as business-like a team as you will ever see. Peyton Manning guides the offense like a ship captain. He's got his hand on the wheel and is in charge of every movement that takes place. Coach Jim Caldwell may or may not be conscious during games, but that seems not to matter. I'm pretty sure the Colts offensive line is allergic to run blocking, because only the Cardinals attempted fewer rushes than the Colts did this season. The Colts have been struggling since pulling their starters in the middle of Week 16 against the Jets, and the Ravens have been gaining steam in recent weeks. Despite these compelling reasons to watch this game, this is not the best game of the weekend.

Saints/Cardinals promises to be an offensive battle for the ages. According to ESPN's in-house gamblingologist (Yes, I made that word up...What of it?) Chad Millman, the 57 point over/under Vegas sports books have posted for this game is the highest in the playoffs in the 20 years records have been kept. When Kurt Warner has time to survey the field, the Arizona offense is virtually unstoppable. When Drew Brees has his full complement of weapons to work with, New Orleans is as difficult a team to defend as there is in the league. Despite Pierre Thomas' availability for the week being somewhat in question (evidenced by the emergency signing of Deuce McAllister on Friday), the Saints are very healthy and should be close to full speed for Saturday's game. Despite all the crazy offensive numbers we may see in this game and despite all of the amazing talent that will be on the field, this is not the game of the weekend.

Minnesota/Dallas has everything we could ever want in a playoff game. It's got the big personalities at QB in Brett Favre and Tony Romo. It's got game-breaking running backs in Adrian Peterson and Felix Jones. It's got young, up-and-coming receivers in the midst of breakout years in Sidney Rice and Miles Austin. It's got head coaches that raise the question of whether the huge amounts of talent each team has can overcome their buffoonery in Brad Childress and Wade Phillips. It's got dueling pass rushing units that make opposing QB's pray for an extra set of eyes coming out of the back of their head. In short, this game has a little bit of everything. What makes this a truly great match up is that these teams are so very similar to each other. Both defensive units were among the league's best. Both offenses rolled up yards and points at amazing rates. Both teams had lulls in during the regular season that caused people to question whether they are true title contenders or not. The main difference is that Dallas had their lull in November and have since recovered well enough to be considered the hottest team remaining in the playoffs, whereas the Vikings lull came in the season's final month, causing them to lose 3 of their last 5 games after an amazing 10-1 start to the year. There is little question that these are the two most complete teams remaining in the playoffs. Saints fans may argue that their bunch belongs in that argument, but in losing three straight to end the season, the flaws that most people quietly knew existed in the Saints reared their ugly heads. Minnesota and Dallas are not without flaws of their own. Minnesota had issues running the ball consistently toward the end of the season, and has given up a ton of yards to teams who employ a quick timing passing attack. Dallas has had significant trouble scoring points at times this year, putting up just 7 points in back to back games against Green Bay and Washington in the middle of November. The Cowboys have also been guilty of a few lapses in defensive play this season. This fact has been masked some by the good statistics their team accumulated over the course of the season, but those stats were boosted some by a few outstanding efforts against less than outstanding teams. A shutout of Washington in Week 16, back to back strong efforts against the Redskins and Raiders in November, and a nice game against a reeling Carolina team in Week 3 helped Dallas final defensive stats significantly. In the interest of full disclosure, however, the Cowboy's last two games against Philadelphia have to be viewed as nothing short of remarkable defensive efforts against a team that can really put the ball in the endzone. To allow just 2 TD's in 2 games to one of the better offenses in the NFL is an amazing achievement. Was it simply a case of one team having another team's number? Possibly. Regardless of that, the effort Dallas big D put gave over the last two weeks cannot be discounted. Ultimately, what this game is going to boil down to is big plays. Whichever team can make the most explosive plays is going to be the successful group. I just don't see this being a grind-it-out type of contest, so players like Felix Jones, Patrick Clayton, Percy Harvin, Adrian Peterson, and Bernard Berrian are going to have a lot of say over who wins this game. After the weekend is over, I believe this will be the game that people remember most fondly moving forward.

I do have opinions as to who is going to win these games. I will now share those opinions.

New Orleans vs. Arizona

The Cardinals won't be able to bring the same kind of effort and intensity after a short week of preparation they had a week ago against Green Bay, and the Saints will take advantage of this by getting ahead early and not letting go. Saints 34, Cardinals 21.

Indianapolis vs. Baltimore

The Colts will have trouble early as they kick off the rust after not having played meaningful football in 3 weeks, but will recover in time to put together a fourth quarter comeback against a rattled Joe Flacco. Colts 27, Ravens 24

Minnesota vs. Dallas

Brett Favre and Tony Romo go blow for blow in this game, each putting up huge games for their respective teams. In the end, this one is decided by who has the ball last, with that honor going to the Vikings in a thrilling early Sunday game. Vikings 38, Cowboys 31

San Diego v. New York

The Chargers superior talent level proves too much for the scrappy Jets to overcome, as the Chargers take off early and never slow down. Chargers 34, Jets 14.