It's been almost a month since my last post, which I owe to the fact that I was studying for and subsequently taking the bar exam during that stretch of time. Now that the exam is behind me, I'll be bat at it on here two or three times a week. The 13 people who read this blog can thank me later. I know Tubby (pictured) looks happy.
Under Tubby Smith, the Minnesota Golden Gophers men’s basketball team has enjoyed quite a lot of success. In Tubby’s first season in Dinkytown, the Gophers won 20 games just one season removed from the schools most dismal season in recent memory. While the Gophers failed to make the NCAA Tournament, they certainly made big strides under Smith’s tutelage. Last year, Minnesota won 22 games en route to their first Tourney appearance since 2004-05, showing yet another sign of improving as a program. Understandably, coming into this year, there were a lot of expectations being placed on the team to continue this pattern of progress. Not only was the team returning every important player from last year’s Tournament squad (depending on how you feel about Jamal Abu-Shamala), but it was adding a highly-touted recruiting class that included California point guard Justin Cobbs, powerful junior college transfer Trevor Mbakwe, and one of the best recruits in the nation, Hopkins’ Royce White. White was considered by most pundits to be a top 5 recruit heading into the season, but more importantly, he was everything the Gophers lacked; someone who could create their own shot, someone who could turn a busted offensive possession into a basket, and someone that would have the Gophers leading SportsCenter with highlight reel plays on a regular basis. With the bulk and athleticism provided by Mbakwe and White and the backcourt depth added by Cobbs, the Gophers were sure to improve upon last year’s mark while hopefully challenging for a Big Ten Championship. Things were looking good for the Maroon and Gold, and the season had yet to even start. Unfortunately, things unraveled as quickly as they came together, causing the Gophers postseason candidacy to go from a sure thing to a long shot.
First, we learned that Trevor Mbakwe was going to be suspended for the foreseeable future in early November after being charged with assault in Dade County, Florida. What was expected to be a month-long suspension turned into a season-long ban, as Miami-Dade prosecutors bumble around with a dead-end case, perpetually pushing back court dates a case that seems to have little chance of being successful. Regardless of the potential fruitfulness of the county’s case against the Gopher forward, the arrest and subsequent investigation have stolen Mbakwe’s season, hurting Minnesota’s depth in the process. What makes Mbakwe’s suspension especially troublesome for the Gophers are reports out of Minnesota practices that Trevor has dominated both Colton Iverson and Ralph Sampson III during drills and scrimmages, leading Gopher Nation to believe that the inclusion of Mbakwe on this year’s squad could have lead to a few of the many close losses Minnesota has endured going the other way. Still, If the loss of Mbakwe was the Gopher’s only hurdle to clear this season, it’s possible they could have survived. Unfortunately, the loss of Mbakwe was only the beginning.
Just a couple of weeks after the Mbakwe suspension became official, we learned that not only was crown jewel recruit Royce White being charged with a number of offenses stemming from a shoplifting incident at a local store, but he was also a suspect in an on-campus laptop theft. White’s multiple alleged indiscretions led to a rollercoaster winter for the former Minnesota prep star. White eventually pled to a lesser charge in the shoplifting case while maintaining his innocence in the laptop caper. Rumors arose in early December that White would be leaving school despite his reportedly exemplary academic record. These rumors proved false for the time being, as not only did Royce remain in school, but rejoined the team for practices, as well. Things were going fine for White until it became clear that Minnesota Athletic Director Joel Maturi was not going to allow White to participate in any games until the issue regarding the laptop was completely resolved. White ultimately decided to leave to leave the University amid rumors that he may try his hand in Europe for the rest of the year before entering the NBA draft next summer. Even more rumors have his grandfather, Frank White, advising him and the University to get together to come to some arrangement that would allow Royce to rejoin the program for next season. One would hope that Royce would listen to Grandpa Frank, if this is indeed his advice, as going to the NBA now would, in my opinion, be a disastrous decision at this point in White’s career. Either way, Royce will not play one minute for the Gophers this year, meaning that the top two recruits of this nationally ranked class will not participate in any University of Minnesota games this season. That’s not exactly an ideal situation for a team hoping to take the next step towards becoming a national contender.
Even with White and Mbakwe being ineligible for the entire season, one recruit remained available to the Gophers. Point guard Justin Cobbs was highly regarded coming out of Torrence, California, and is projected to be a solid contributor for the Gophers down the road. The initial plan for Cobbs was to allow him to mature while backing up junior PG Al Nolen and keeping his minutes down. Unfortunately, that plan went by the wayside a few weeks ago when 18 games into the season Nolen was ruled academically ineligible for the rest of the season by the NCAA. Devoe Joseph has taken over the starting point guard duties in Nolan’s absence, but he’s not really a true PG. Cobbs is the only real PG on the roster, and as a result, his minutes have increased both in quantity and in importance. Against pressure defensive teams, Cobbs has been forced into duty in order to sure up the ball handling. Justin has played about as well as one could expect a freshman to play, but offensively, his ability to score the ball has yet to develop. The Gophers are a team without a real go-to scorer, and on such a team, the responsibility often falls on the PG to create some offense at the end of the shot clock. Cobbs has not proven to be capable of handling this task yet and as a result of this, the offense tends to get stagnant when he’s on the floor. Some of that offensive sluggishness may be a result of Cobbs getting most of his minutes with the less experienced second group, but none the less, there is a discernable difference between the team with Joseph or Nolan at the helm as opposed to when Cobbs has the reigns. Since Nolan was ruled in eligible, the Gophers are 5-6, with all eleven of the games being played within the conference. Prior to his departure, Minnesota appeared to be at least capable of making a run to the NCAA Tournament. But, now? Such a run seems more than a little unlikely as the Gophers, following an embarrassing loss to the hapless Michigan Wolverines, can only watch as their season spirals away from them.
Despite all of the personnel issues surrounding the squad, the story could have played out differently for the U of M. The Gophers have lost five of their twelve games this season by one point or in overtime. Two of those games have come against conference front-runners Michigan State and Purdue. A win against either of those squads would have represented a victory that could have propelled the Gophers into the postseason. With their only good wins comings against Ohio State early in the Big Ten season and Wisconsin late in the season, there are way too many fluff teams comprising the rest of the team’s wins. The Gophers are going to finish the season in Big Ten no-man’s-land. The top five teams in the conference have identified themselves as being Purdue, MSU, Wisconsin, OSU, and Illinois, in no specific order. The bottom five have equally identified themselves as being Penn State, Iowa, Indiana, Northwestern, and Michigan. Minnesota is currently smack dab in the middle of these two groups. Wins against top half teams Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Illinois (in Champaign), as well as close losses against Michigan State (both at home and on the road) and Purdue, have displayed the team’s ability to play with the upper-echelon teams in the conference. At the same time, losses to Indiana, Northwestern and Michigan (twice), along with uncomfortably close wins against Northwestern and Penn State have shown a propensity to play down to the level of inferior opponents. After everything is considered, it’s pretty clear that Minnesota belongs right where it is within the conference. Some years, being the sixth best team in the Big Ten has been enough to get a team into the tournament, but in this new era of college basketball, where mid-major programs get enough overflow talent from the big schools to compete on a national level, those days are quickly coming to a close.
(This theory of newfound parity, of course, excludes the Big East, which we are all lead to believe by the national media is the be-all, end-all of college basketball. The worst team in the Big East is better than the best team anywhere else. I’m sure this perception I’ve got from watching ESPN’s experts analyze the sport has nothing to do with the fact that ESPN’s main campus falls directly in the middle of Big East territory. Did I lay that on thick enough? OK, then…moving on.)
Short of a miraculous run in the Big Ten Tournament that gives the Gophers an automatic bid to the Big Dance, the Gophers’ season will end with an appearance in the NIT, which might as well be an acronym for “non-ideal turnout.” With 17 wins, Tubby’s streak of consecutive seasons with 20 victories is in serious jeopardy, with the team probably needing at least one win in the NIT to reach the mark. A win in the conference finale against Iowa would give Minnesota a .500 season in conference, which is always better than being sub-.500, but ultimately, it won’t be enough to get this team where it needs to go.
So what does all of this mean? Should Tubby be fired for his indescresions? Of course not. Tubby Smith has taken a floundering program and turned it into a competitive one, at the very least. If Royce White, Trevor Mbakwe, and Al Nolen can all return to the team next year, the losses of senior leaders Lawrence Westbrook and Damien Johnson won’t sting quite as much. With signed recruits Austin Hollins (son of former NBA player and current Memphis Grizzlies head coach Lionel Hollins) and Elliott Eliason, as well as the potential signing of Devoe Joseph’s brother, Corey, there is a lot to be optimistic about regarding the future of this program.
Minnesota sports fans are used to repeating the “maybe next year” mantra. Unless the Tubby Smith and the Gophers can perform a miracle in Indianapolis in two weeks, it appears as though we’ll all be repeating that familiar phrase one more time.
